Thank you tomorton! So when you say "The best objective decision is to get into cash when prices are falling." - what does that mean? How far, how fast? Those stats you gave give one much fear!
"Even if you had a balanced portfolio, everything went down.”
- Thread starter Altavest_Erik
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Thank you tomorton! So when you say "The best objective decision is to get into cash when prices are falling." - what does that mean? How far, how fast? Those stats you gave give one much fear!
The guidance I use is the 50EMA - if the index is below the 50EMA and its slope is downwards, I would sell all my shares.
Also worth pointing out that last time I checked this, 16 of the 20 worst 1-day performances in the Dow since 1900 came when the index was already below the 50, which was already sloping downwards. Crash events like these don't normally come out of a clear blue sky.
%%Only if you panic and got out in 2009. Those who were too dumb (or like a deer in the headlight) to get out of the market, hung on for dear life, ended up a lot better off, recovered nicely.
Or those who found a long term trend like SPY......, or had a selling plan
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Trade /invest reasonable size; ignore most of media, which promotes panic selling or greed buying.And study all data +charts..................................................... This buy+sell plan comment remark does not apply to single stocks.200 day moving average helps.Bear of 2000-2002 went down more+ longer than 2008.
Thank you tomorton! Sorry for delay checking back in! So you would sell everything when the index is below its 50 EMA and the 50 EMA is also sloped down. If I own a bunch of stocks, which index would you use to figure out when to sell them (or cover)? S&P500?
Then when do you buy back? As soon as either of those conditions are not met? Or they both have to change? And do you do it only based on closings, or intra-day? How do you avoid/minimize whipsaw?
Thanks!
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Trade /invest reasonable size; ignore most of media, which promotes panic selling or greed buying.And study all data +charts..................................................... This buy+sell plan comment remark does not apply to single stocks.200 day moving average helps.Bear of 2000-2002 went down more+ longer than 2008.
Thanks murray! Dang, 2000-2002 bear market was worse than 2008 one? I would have guess only the crash of '29 could have touched it! So much pain!
Yes, S&P is the best belweather for the US stock market. But if I only held Nasdaq shares, then the Nas 100 cold be more appropriate, though it usually moves in advance of the S&P.
As soon as we get back into uptrend conditions I would start looking for a buy signal on each individual share chart to get me back into that one. Actually, to get in long I want the index chart to show the 50EMA below price and sloping upwards as said above but I also want the 20EMA to be above the 50 and the 20 also be sloping upwards. So you could say that means I am taking a less stringent exit TA set-up than entry set-up - and that would be right. This helps avoid whipsaw as this is really only a serious danger when you exit and reverse, which my set-up is rarely going to dictate. I only use EOD charts, the close is the most important price of the day, and again this helps avoid whipsaw.
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I like a good uptrend; but QQQ is still nicely below 200 day moving average, daily, weekly= bear market. SPY may, maybe not above 200dma;i dont mind getting paid on a weak uptrend, but for strong seasonals[ 4 thquarter], SPY is weak.....
Why?%%
This buy+sell plan comment remark does not apply to single stocks.