Even the CBO had hedged their estimates.
The Director of the CBO acknoweldged as much in is own blog......
As a result, we believe that CBOâs estimates of the net savings that would result from the legislation have a roughly equal chance of turning out to be too high or too low.
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Focusing on another area of concern, some observers argue that CBOâs estimates are unrealistic because the Congress will not allow the Medicare spending cuts and future tax increases in the proposals to take effect. CBOâs responsibility to the Congress is to estimate the effects of proposals as written and not to forecast future legislation. However, the agency does try to provide information about the consequences of implementing proposals. For example, our cost estimate for the bill taken up by the Senate in December and our estimate for the House bill last October noted that inflation-adjusted Medicare spending per beneficiary would slow sharply under those proposals. We estimated that growth in such spending under the Senate bill would drop from about 4 percent per year for the past two decades to roughly 2 percent per year for the next two decades; whether such a reduction could be achieved through greater efficiencies in the delivery of health care or would reduce access to care or diminish the quality of care is unclear.
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As we reported yesterday, budget deficits would be reduced, in our estimation, if the reconciliation proposal and Senate-passed health bill are enacted and remain unchanged throughout the next two decades. However, the legislation would maintain and put into effect a number of provisions that might be difficult to sustain over a long period of time. Whether any of its provisionsâand if so, which onesâmight be changed in the future is not for CBO to judge.
Lastly, I would note that the original estimates for the cost of Medicare was off by a mile.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=524
The Director of the CBO acknoweldged as much in is own blog......
As a result, we believe that CBOâs estimates of the net savings that would result from the legislation have a roughly equal chance of turning out to be too high or too low.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Focusing on another area of concern, some observers argue that CBOâs estimates are unrealistic because the Congress will not allow the Medicare spending cuts and future tax increases in the proposals to take effect. CBOâs responsibility to the Congress is to estimate the effects of proposals as written and not to forecast future legislation. However, the agency does try to provide information about the consequences of implementing proposals. For example, our cost estimate for the bill taken up by the Senate in December and our estimate for the House bill last October noted that inflation-adjusted Medicare spending per beneficiary would slow sharply under those proposals. We estimated that growth in such spending under the Senate bill would drop from about 4 percent per year for the past two decades to roughly 2 percent per year for the next two decades; whether such a reduction could be achieved through greater efficiencies in the delivery of health care or would reduce access to care or diminish the quality of care is unclear.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As we reported yesterday, budget deficits would be reduced, in our estimation, if the reconciliation proposal and Senate-passed health bill are enacted and remain unchanged throughout the next two decades. However, the legislation would maintain and put into effect a number of provisions that might be difficult to sustain over a long period of time. Whether any of its provisionsâand if so, which onesâmight be changed in the future is not for CBO to judge.
Lastly, I would note that the original estimates for the cost of Medicare was off by a mile.
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=524