EURUSD Trading Opportunities

Lee-Bax said:
Good morning all, reporting on EURUSD this morning as I have taken a sell on the daily candle close. Initially I was expecting more of a drop to the imbalance zone below, and less of a pullback. As we can see price has had a sharp up turn in momentum. But it looks to have tapped into supply and lost its steam. Going with the overall higher TF bearish trend and under the EMA it's a valid sell to take for us. We can get a fairly small SL above the moving average and also have a nice target to aim for with good R:R. If this is a true lower high then we should be good to make the next step down. I will update again in a few days hopefully this time with profits in tow. GLIYF
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Really liked your analysis. Hope you get to see winning trades!
 
We got quite an up move. Trying to fade it again.

If it goes past 1.150, I may just consider moving more to European Equities than the US.

upload_2022-2-3_10-11-36.png
 
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Got to watch interest and for the Euro that means 10yr German Bund - which is now, for the first time in years, firmly above 0.00
! Bund.png
 
What is happening is the following:

EUR/USD is going to 1.1700-1.1800 first (should not drop below 1.1300 in the meantime), but not as high as 1.2100. Then the proper multi-year down trend resumes, ending the year below 1.1000, with low for the year below 1.0700. Next years it will move to below parity. Fundamentally EUR has no future. That is the script for this market.

Having said that, I am extremely pissed off and frustrated as I need pullbacks - I could not enter the whole week nor today due to vertical move and my limit orders not being triggered. I will, however, not chase it and get it filled next week at around 1.1388 keeping in mind it may drop to about 1.1340 so I will be off side by some 50 pips max.
 
I'm on tight stops. I look forward to a turn. Not exactly a bear on Europe. Granted, they seem to have problems. The rush to Green Energy seems to be a big one. I hope Greta Thunberg doesn't read my post.
 
PBS said:
What is happening is the following:

EUR/USD is going to 1.1700-1.1800 first (should not drop below 1.1300 in the meantime), but not as high as 1.2100. Then the proper multi-year down trend resumes, ending the year below 1.1000, with low for the year below 1.0700. Next years it will move to below parity. Fundamentally EUR has no future. That is the script for this market.

Having said that, I am extremely pissed off and frustrated as I need pullbacks - I could not enter the whole week nor today due to vertical move and my limit orders not being triggered. I will, however, not chase it and get it filled next week at around 1.1388 keeping in mind it may drop to about 1.1340 so I will be off side by some 50 pips max.
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that is the perfect calculation , thanks for your nice reply
 
Svetlana Loboda said:
that is the perfect calculation , thanks for your nice reply
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It is just my 1-person investment committee's view - there is a ban on going short this market for now :) Unless from 1.1550-60 with little size

A little update - might reach 1.1550-60 next week then down to 2021 yearly close at around 1.1376-80. I am now resting my limits at 1.1380.
Anyway, before we see 1.1700 I expect next 2 weeks to be a bit erratic and definitely less ranging (low to high) than this week. Today's low (1.1411) is NOT a good stop.
 
Daily - wide range breakout bar down (always opening price):-
! EU daily.png

One Hour - same WR breakout down same day 1/14/22 (chart can't be shrunk down without making it all teeny, tiny:-
! EU 60m.png
 
Actually, Mr Market might be generous enough to drop to 1.13460. Stop would then go at 1.12480. Investment committee will review its recommendation again on Monday
 
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