New York, March 8th. Given that the Reuters forecast for 1-mth EUR/USD was last measured at 1.5200 by the median of forecasters, with the arithmetic mean at 1.5160, spot is roughly 1.3% above expectations.
Daily RSI at 79.35 has only attained these lofty heights five times prior to now in the past three years; on those occasions on two out of five the peak was the next day (Asian session onwards) and it was 15-20 pips higher, then fell 250 and 300 pips. On two occasion the top was 3-6 days later, spot ran up 110-150 pips, and then fell 300; on one occasion it peaked that day, and dropped 260 pips over the next week. That would suggest if spot breaks more than 20 pips higher it is likely to run another big fig or so.
Weekly RSI is at 71.25, has been at or above these levels on 9 occasions over a similar time frame; however with much more volatile results. On four occasions spot peaked weeks later up 400-600 pips; then fell between 700-1100 pips. Twice it peaked the next week 20-30 pips higher, 300-500 pips. On 3 occasions it peaked that week and fell 300-600 pips. One recurrent theme above is that pull backs were between 250-1100 pips; cycle gurus see next week as a temporary cycle top (2-wk pull back) which favours the "up a big fig and fade it" strategy, before further gains. Spot last 1.5360.
man; this thread is getting funnier everyday.