eurusd - 6E - ($) lines - euro topped ???

unfortunately last week distractions only allowed me a cursory look at the charts and
i wasn't able to update them until Mon, after which i began to wonder what downside
resistance the price had hit; checking the calendar i learnt it was ECB week and that
alone would have had me saying ' s i d e w a y s ' last Sat

my cursory look didn't see a correction rally although it was briefly considered, but i
was on Mon able to find a significant 50% fibo level that the price came within a few
pips of touching - the resistance, plus a couple of projection fibos and while the price
sat on the the left outer sec on May 18&19 - the Daily chart, closed just below it on
Jun 7, it then as we know continued to rise

this whole formation since Apr 14 is difficult to interpret in terms of waves and being
able to put a count on it; at present i'm running with the idea that the May 18-19 was
w 3 of w 3 (of 5 ?) so currently this rally is C of w 4
had the price hit the median line of the secs on fri it would have reached 1.24, and as
time progresses the line drops, but of course it also means it's easier for the price to
go thru that line to a higher price, for instance 1.25 next friday (move a vertical line
intersecting the sec)

so far as the 4H is concerned, the price has broken well clear of the major sec placed
on it. for fibos, the 60min, using the Jun 3 HH Jun 7 LL the price has been interacting
very closely with all levels of that fibo, the next HH is May 28 then May 21 but think
the May 10 HH may be a HH too high; watch the price and median line

if and when the price drops to the 1.17-16 area, this whole wave down since last Dec
won't on the Daily look to me to be complete until it hits 1.12

time wise, an up week ? watch the Mon/Tue 3am pst and 8am pst - European close
 
Attached is COT for 6E. It is off the charts: Open Interest > 400K large traders and small speculators have left the game <-100K.
Only Govt backed commercials are keeping the EUR propped up... but they've sealed their fate by their own short covers.

FIB analysis aside there are no large traders taking longs. In the history of the EUR there has never been such complete withdrawal by the Large Traders.

Quote from Wallace:

unfortunately last week distractions only allowed me a cursory look at the charts and
i wasn't able to update them until Mon, after which i began to wonder what downside
resistance the price had hit; checking the calendar i learnt it was ECB week and that
alone would have had me saying ' s i d e w a y s ' last Sat

my cursory look didn't see a correction rally although it was briefly considered, but i
was on Mon able to find a significant 50% fibo level that the price came within a few
pips of touching - the resistance, plus a couple of projection fibos and while the price
sat on the the left outer sec on May 18&19 - the Daily chart, closed just below it on
Jun 7, it then as we know continued to rise

this whole formation since Apr 14 is difficult to interpret in terms of waves and being
able to put a count on it; at present i'm running with the idea that the May 18-19 was
w 3 of w 3 (of 5 ?) so currently this rally is C of w 4
had the price hit the median line of the secs on fri it would have reached 1.24, and as
time progresses the line drops, but of course it also means it's easier for the price to
go thru that line to a higher price, for instance 1.25 next friday (move a vertical line
intersecting the sec)

so far as the 4H is concerned, the price has broken well clear of the major sec placed
on it. for fibos, the 60min, using the Jun 3 HH Jun 7 LL the price has been interacting
very closely with all levels of that fibo, the next HH is May 28 then May 21 but think
the May 10 HH may be a HH too high; watch the price and median line

if and when the price drops to the 1.17-16 area, this whole wave down since last Dec
won't on the Daily look to me to be complete until it hits 1.12

time wise, an up week ? watch the Mon/Tue 3am pst and 8am pst - European close
More...
 

Attachments

Quote from PocketChange:

Attached is COT for 6E. It is off the charts: Open Interest > 400K large traders and small speculators have left the game <-100K.
Only Govt backed commercials are keeping the EUR propped up... but they've sealed their fate by their own short covers.

FIB analysis aside there are no large traders taking longs. In the history of the EUR there has never been such complete withdrawal by the Large Traders.
More...

Interesting chart, thanks.
 
i've never found COT data to be useful to me, it's also delayed weekly data
not surprising that Large Traders positions have been declining for the past 3 years
however if one had used the LT COT data to have entered a short in mid 2007 when
the Euro was 1.35, it would have been a losing trade, the Euro rallied to 1.60
what we see with the Commercials positions are 'late' reactions when compared with
the price movement of the Euro, particularly the decline that began in Nov 09
not surprisingly that the OI has increased as has the daily V, given the speculations
on whether the Euro will continue to exist, never mind it's declining price/value
'business' Has to hedge currencies when the price/value of that currency rises, then
reduce hedges as the price/value of that currency declines; inversely metal producers
hedge when the price/value of that metal falls, reduce when the price/value rallies

"It is more important to note whether the large speculators are net long or short in
specific commodities or currencies. Sometimes, moves can also be influenced by
small traders closing their losing positions. Knowing whether large speculators have
been net long or short a few days ago only indicates the positioning in retrospect.
It is more useful to compare the latest net positioning with that from the past few
weeks or months. For more information on the use of COT in forex trading, refer to
Chapter 5 of '7 Winning Strategies For Trading Forex' by Grace Cheng."
and charts: http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/

trading the COT: http://www.thepitmaster.com/cot/cot.htm

COT indicator for MT4:http://www.cot4metatrader.com
 
can the rally continue to the 38.2 (1 of 3) around 1.2650 ?

the price crossed the secs Daily median line on Fri and i don't see a reason why it
shouldn't continue to the 38.2 and outer sec 3, however my time targeting does
suggest this coming trading week is a change of trend week, so keep an eye on
Tue/Wed although the price could spend the week going thru a reversal formation

so far as the 1.1875 bottom goes, the Tue L could have been the aggressive A of an
AB hence the fast rally; there's also a reasonable 5 wave count to the Apr - June
decline so the possibilites of the current pattern is it's a w 1, or A of an AB major
reversal bottoming formation after the price drops back down to the 1.1875 area, in
turn leading to a correction of the whole downtrend from last year's 1.51s; and finally
the idea the rally is C of w 4 that once completed would mean new lows coming

a note that 1.19277 and 1.18048 horizontal lines represent a band of SR
 
Quote from Wallace:

can the rally continue to the 38.2 (1 of 3) around 1.2650 ?

the price crossed the secs Daily median line on Fri and i don't see a reason why it
shouldn't continue to the 38.2 and outer sec 3, however my time targeting does
suggest this coming trading week is a change of trend week, so keep an eye on
Tue/Wed although the price could spend the week going thru a reversal formation

so far as the 1.1875 bottom goes, the Tue L could have been the aggressive A of an
AB hence the fast rally; there's also a reasonable 5 wave count to the Apr - June
decline so the possibilites of the current pattern is it's a w 1, or A of an AB major
reversal bottoming formation after the price drops back down to the 1.1875 area, in
turn leading to a correction of the whole downtrend from last year's 1.51s; and finally
the idea the rally is C of w 4 that once completed would mean new lows coming

a note that 1.19277 and 1.18048 horizontal lines represent a band of SR
More...

I read somewhere 1.2500 to 2520 was going to be a key level.
 
not sure if the price is going to run up to the 1.2460 area again or even 1.25 then
early Tuesday decline down to the 1.2150/2130 area by the week end, which could
be the makings of a w 1 ABC 2 with a 3 to come

as you can see the consensus range is Large:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Prior . . .Consensus . . Consensus Range
NFP - M/M change 430,000 . . .100,000 . . -165,000 to 431,000
 
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