eurusd - 6E - ($) lines - euro topped ???

2 weeks ago i'd said ' W 4 complete ' - wrong

personally i get impatient with the price not moving as quickly as i'd like it to
and complete a particular formation; there are times though when it moves
unexpectedly quickly and gets ahead of me, the bane of a 24H market

i was impressed with the mar 15-17 AB/Reversal formation and accepted it
as a reason to say - W 4 complete, notwithstanding the whole formation from
feb 2 until the 17th was hardly a W 4 when compared with the dec 22 - jan 13
W 2 formation, where was the 'complexity' ? - 'rule of alternation' ? - but at
least i could 'get rid' of W 4 !

what i believe has occurred is mar 15-17 was A, mar 25 B and the price is
currently doing C, which when complete, will be the completion of W 4, so
the question now is, how high and for how long will C carry ?

it's possible that mon/tue would see a high and completion, but the move
could easily run until fri, thur is the regular BoE and ECB announcement but
interest rates are likely to be a non-event and the euro may well end with an
Up week, possibly another AB/Reversal formation by the week end and begin
the next Down wave next week

1.36 , or as high as 1.375 - 1.38+ . . chart: 4H
 

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previously . . wrong wrong ?


last friday saw the euro break the upper line of a major sec - dotted - drawn
from the Nov 25/09 HH
a new sec drawn from the H of Oct 22/09 is being used as a guide, the HC
of the Weekly was Oct 23
likewise a sec drawn from the Mar 25 is being used producing a target date
of Apr 22 where the 2 sec intersect, below the 50 retracement level of the
Jan 1/10 HH Mar 25 LL - presumed to be the 'active' fibo, since the Apr 1 H
closed on the 23.6; could the 38.2 near 1.3760 be the C retracement high ?
or is 1.36 going to be the high ? NB secs are arbitrary

possibilities:
1 - March 25 was W 5 complete, April 8 completed a 'major' AB Reversal
formation, a large Retracement rally has begun
2 - March 25 was B of W 4, April 8 completed a large AB Reversal, C has
begun and may continue to the 1.3750/1.38 area
3 - A was W 4 ? - 1.36 level, March 25 was w 1 of W 5, now doing c of w 2
will last until tue europe mid morning, if so - w 2 of W 5 - later with a reversal
then Down to much lower lows

so the April 1 high about 1.3590 should be watched to see how the price
stops or goes through that level, and then the March 12-17 highs levels of
1.37 - 1.38; is there the possibility of Upwardness for 2 weeks - April 23 ?
possibly into the early part of the last week of April ? depending on if there's
a reversal formation, then Down ?

chart: D, 4H
 

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i'm a 'bit' late to this, but has the euro bottomed ?
was the March 25 L a 'truncated 5th' ?

Greece aside the euro began falling at the same time as the $ began to rally, so i'm
more inclined to watch the $ than the Greek debt machinations
since the euro's bottomed it means the $'s topped - or v v

had last week's high stopped at the 1.36 area and then declined, i'd say we're on w 3
of W 5, as it is, the price went high enough that i'm undecided if it's going higher and
make the C in the 1.37/ 8 area, or it's Down from here
there was fairly large AB reversal into the 76.4, so what's to consider is if the downside
now is an abc or if the AB was ab and we're on c - 4H , or, if the price travels sideways
completing what's a H&S formation, the $ dumps and euro rockets up

the problem with Reversal formations - which is why Elliott created the AB label is you
don't know if it's a reversal or w 1-2 , reversal formations don't always appear, although
they appear a lot in the eurusd
so right now is no-man's land for me but biased to more Up, closing the week at a
High, but not committing to more till next week; i'm thinking of the price dropping to
new fibo 61.8 levels around 1.3425 - 1.3440 and beginning the rally mon, - tue session
But, see the 'did the $ top' thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=196583

charts: most of the 6E volume comes in around 8am pst - 4pm UK, the 'europeans''
knock-off time; the 60min 6E chart shows the previous 7 days, notably the very high
volume on fri april 9 (25 contracts per second); high vol doesn't mean large price moves
although the 9th and sun Greece loan announcement paid off for the fri Buys, except
there wasn't anywhere near the same volume closing the Buys on sun night when the
1.3690+ was hit, but there is more correlation during the week - the lows last fri in
particularly
also included is a 15min Oanda chart of last sunday's trading, first trade 9:15am pst
L 1.3500 , 2pm pst H 1.3674 for a total of 174 pips , spread went to 20 pips
MT4 - fri C 1.34981 sun O 1.36264 , gap up 128 pips
6E opened like Oanda at the fri close, price moved fast, 900+ contracts traded during
the first couple of minutes
4H new fibos, secs, and Daily
 

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FFR wed 28; GDP fri 30; ECB thur may 6; NFP fri may 7; BOE mon may 10
calendar has both US and rest of the world, can be 'next week' ahead but no charts
http://www.ac-markets.com/forex-news/economic-calendar.aspx

the possibility is for the $/euro to be traded down/up during this week possibly into next
week prior to the NFP, with a presumption the release will be quite positive resulting in
a longer rally/decline afterwards going to a w 5 , $ 84 area € 1.27area
current target prices: 1.3650 , 1.38 areas
charts: D , 4H
 

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Greece's €300B ($401.2B) debt v €240B annual economic output

'Euro Crisis a Death by A Thousand Day Trades' - Christopher Quigley - Apr 30/10
"If the Euro actually had a real central bank the sovereign nations of the European
Super State would be able to borrow under its aegis, they cannot.
This means the Euro is not a 'currency' as such but in actual fact is an exchange
rate mechanism only." http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19081.html

the PIIGS refunding will continue thru the summer and into the fall
'In and Out of Each Other’s European Wallets' - see chart
“In the end, we’re all saying we don’t know how to deal with it [cross country debt]”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02schwartz.html
France is owed at least $901B and Germany at least $604B

Nonfarm Payrolls - to be released on 5/7/2010 - 8:30:00am est for Apr 2010
. . . . . . . . . . Prior Consensus - Consensus Range
M/M change 162,000 200,000 - 110,000 to 500,000

meanwhile, a small rally for a couple of hours on the sun/mon opening, then down ?
charts: M W D 4H
 

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6E record volumes: April 27: 541,151 28: 609,313 May 5: 569,862 6: 828,859 7: 667,749

'EU Finance Ministers Race to Ready Euro Fund Before Asia Opens'
May 8/10 by James G. Neuger and Gregory Viscusi May 9 (Bloomberg)
"EU finance ministers meet today to hammer out the details of an emergency fund to
prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11 year-old euro.
[European stabilization mechanism - news check pre 'opening' - any Oanda trading ?]
Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency to the lowest in 14 months and
soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro nations agreed to the
financial backstop at a May 7 summit. They assigned finance chiefs to get it ready
before Asian markets open later today European time.
“We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,” European Commission President Jose
Barroso told reporters in the early hours yesterday after the leaders met in Brussels."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...ace-to-ready-euro-fund-before-asia-opens.html
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana
"Black Wednesday refers to the events of 16 September 1992 when the Conservative
government was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange
Rate Mechanism (ERM) after they were unable to keep sterling above its agreed lower
limit. George Soros, the most high profile of the currency market investors, made over
US$1 billion profit by short selling sterling. In 1997 the UK Treasury estimated the cost
of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion, with the actual cost being £3.3 billion which was
revealed in 2005 under the Freedom of Information Act (FoI)[1].
The trading losses in August and September were estimated at £800m, but the main
loss to taxpayers arose because the devaluation could have made them a profit. The
papers show that if the government had maintained $24bn foreign currency reserves
and the pound had fallen by the same amount, the UK would have made a £2.4bn profit
on sterling's devaluation.[2] Newspapers also revealed that the Treasury spent £27bn of
reserves in propping up the pound."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

euro PPP is currently less than 5% v $ and - 4% v C$

Thur's L hit a major 38.2 and the Fri C sits on a diagonal meridian line the L penetrated
- a Monthly chart - (similar to the Weekly that it broke this week) the 50 is in the 1.17 area
the 2005 L

looking at the 15m, i'll be waiting to see if it runs up on the sun/mon opening to maybe
1.2822 , then resumes the downtrend ? bases ?
 
if last sun/mon's rally was A, this week's decline B, then we should see a rally forming
C that may last the whole of this week and the downtrend resume May 24
while the A was a massive 570 or so pips and B 740 or so pips, i'm expecting C to be
a lot smaller; look at the Daily Close, either an MA 1SC on the chart or a Line chart the
A wave is much more proportional, in keeping with this w 5 , and on the adjusted secs
the A wave Close only came up to the median line, if that were to be the wave C target
it'd be below 1.2700 as the week progresses
60min wave C fibo price targets: 23.6/1.2520, 38.2/1.2620 50/1.2700, 61.8/1.2780
the 60 and lowers look like a base formed at friday's Close, but it's possible the euro
will open down, maybe at the 1.2300 or 1.2250 areas - cracking the Oct 08 L of 1.2330
friday's L was 1.2353

current price/time target is 1.1600 area in the second week of June for W 5 which would
puncture the Oct 2000 LL - Nov 09 HH at the 50% Correction level
the 61.8 level is around 1.0900

chart: D
 

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i'm uncertain what will go on next with the euro
there's often in a downtrend v v uptrend an 'if it goes up first it'll drop lower, down first
it'll rally' and i was expecting the latter last week
while the price stayed within the secs the L was lower than i expected — i'd neglected
to draw the HH - LL major correction fibo on my charts and not realized that its 50%
was at 1.2133 - wednesday's LL was 1.21432 - 6E 1.2140
this fibo also means its 61.8 price is around 1.12
and there's also that support line from the nov 2005 LL/LC around the 1.17 area

so was may 6 or may 18 w 3 ? - a straight drop to 1.17 area or, a period of correction
until B and C complete - B down to 1.20 area ?, C up to 1.25 ? 1.23 ? 1.27 ? or have
5 waves completed ? 3 weeks for the BC correction then more downside ?

interestingly, all the major fibos have their 76.4s congregating around par - 1.00

charts: 60 4H D
 

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the $ has very defined 5 wave formations on the D and W
the D in particular looks as though it's formed a reversal formation - euro bottomed ???
but what looks like B of an AB may instead be w 0-1 of w 5 and it's completing w 2
no reversal formation is seen on the W and i have to go with the idea the $ may
break 90

euro scenarios:
an AB's completed, it'll now start an ABC w 4 correction
A and B of the w 4 correction have completed, C has started
euro's bottomed and it's started a rally correction of the 3,000 pip drop
60 , 4H - waves 0-1-2 of w 5 have completed, w 3 begins monday
 
down

i think we cannot expect anything else, how fast will a drop to 1.17 - 1.1650 be ?
to what i'll expect is a strong - if temporary support level, while the $ runs to the 09 H
of 90.30 and . . .
 
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