Given the rash of much-needed budget cuts across Eurozone sovereigns, I think the ECB will be forced into an aggressive program of quantitative easing reminiscent of the '09 FED initiative to prop bank balance sheets, sovereign debt and corporations who otherwise stand to get killed by the deflationary "credit-crunch" rapidly gaining traction in Europe. It's not possible to cut deficits and prop banks with sovereign debt, so the ECB really must step it up and open the floodgates, as the IMF and US FED already led the way to contain the contagion that easily threatens North American markets.
In my opinion, Trichet and the Germans must hit the presses hard and fast to get the reflation/confidence trade back up and running. I think all this will happen within a couple weeks. I think we'll get a Euro bottom this week. Of course, they could just let the whole world go to seed, but I doubt it. It's inflate-or-die and the ball is in the ECB's court. My fear is the Germans and Trichet will gamble and prolong the crisis to extort a centralized fiscal authority for eurozone member budgets. I hope the painful lessons from their hesitation on Greece were learned. But maybe it wasn't hesitation at all? Maybe these crisis aren't nipped in the bud to foment the exact panic the ruling class need to effect sweeping changes otherwise reviled by the masses? The real crux is steep budget cuts = deflation = massive banker writedowns = bankruptcies = EU credit crunch = Depression. The ECB has to intervene and combat that via inflation or it'll spread quick.
That said, I think we'll get a Euro bottom this week or next. 70% chance. Short-interest at record highs, quantitative easing around the corner, 1 Trillion in bailouts on the way, and a world that must avoid a deflationary contagion at all costs.
In my opinion, Trichet and the Germans must hit the presses hard and fast to get the reflation/confidence trade back up and running. I think all this will happen within a couple weeks. I think we'll get a Euro bottom this week. Of course, they could just let the whole world go to seed, but I doubt it. It's inflate-or-die and the ball is in the ECB's court. My fear is the Germans and Trichet will gamble and prolong the crisis to extort a centralized fiscal authority for eurozone member budgets. I hope the painful lessons from their hesitation on Greece were learned. But maybe it wasn't hesitation at all? Maybe these crisis aren't nipped in the bud to foment the exact panic the ruling class need to effect sweeping changes otherwise reviled by the masses? The real crux is steep budget cuts = deflation = massive banker writedowns = bankruptcies = EU credit crunch = Depression. The ECB has to intervene and combat that via inflation or it'll spread quick.
That said, I think we'll get a Euro bottom this week or next. 70% chance. Short-interest at record highs, quantitative easing around the corner, 1 Trillion in bailouts on the way, and a world that must avoid a deflationary contagion at all costs.