''Plan A entails a brutal fiscal retrenchment to restore debt sustainability. It will lead to higher unemployment and social unrest now, but only restore competitiveness in the distant future. It will intensify deflationary and political pressures in Europeâs south and so raise real interest rates over time. If it is not seen to be working right away, real interest rates will continue to rise sharply and quickly as they have this week. It will also exacerbate market fears of subordination: the more IMF support is needed, the larger the haircut meted out to private sector creditors if restructuring is eventually required.
Far better to move to Plan B. This would involve a pre-emptive debt restructuring for Greece; a strengthened fiscal adjustment plan in the eurozone periphery; far-reaching structural reforms; a larger IMF/European Union programme to help Greece and prevent contagion to others; further monetary easing by the European Central Bank; fiscal and domestic demand stimulus in Germany; and a co-ordinated effort to address the institutional weaknesses of Europeâs economic and monetary union.''
-Nouriel Roubini is chairman and Arnab Das head of market research at Roubini Global Economics in a Financial Times comments at April 29 2010-
Far better to move to Plan B. This would involve a pre-emptive debt restructuring for Greece; a strengthened fiscal adjustment plan in the eurozone periphery; far-reaching structural reforms; a larger IMF/European Union programme to help Greece and prevent contagion to others; further monetary easing by the European Central Bank; fiscal and domestic demand stimulus in Germany; and a co-ordinated effort to address the institutional weaknesses of Europeâs economic and monetary union.''
-Nouriel Roubini is chairman and Arnab Das head of market research at Roubini Global Economics in a Financial Times comments at April 29 2010-
