eurodollars/eurbor traders

another cautious central banker
king pretty clear
cautious economic view
sold front diff at + 3 20.s v 63 and m/z/m -16
m/z/m has great convergence still to h/u/h
market should continue to defer steepness

yield whores likely even at up 10 or so to want dec and beyond tomorrow
overnight papers likely reporting bullish on kings statement
am a dec buyer and on dips for overnight gap up if straight direction is your desire
 
didnt get the follow through post overnight papers on King
stopped the outright long in dec
at 70 for 2 tick loss
still following the diff opinions favour dec to trade and from teh long side

running m fly diff and m/z/m

no real ideas in bor

telegraph carrying an article that is more than likely post the event on china and a leaked directive concerning avoidance of riskier dollar assets
 
m/z/m sterling liquidating 1/3 at -21 this morning
convergence to h/u/h still favourable but decent 24 hr move

no progress on m diff but no change of opinion

bernanke was pretty clear
favouring long edlr 12 mos cal longs
u/u or z/z probably
 
actions starting to follow the words
cbs are sending clear signals
e dlrs
z/z had reasonable move to 150 (high 150,5 overnight)
booking p/l on 1/2 will reset longs on move back to 142
short sterling
m/z/m s stg still running current -26
front diff troublesome not enough steepness in m/u
 
Nakedtraderclan..

Enjoying the thread. Excuse my ignorance but what type of trade do you mean when you refer to diff in your posts?
 
apologies never necessary
always happy to discuss
markets made of opposing views
a diff is simply two butterflies one long one short
eg h/m/u v m/u/z

like the majority of my spread views a relative curve relationship
kinked often by liquidity or "an in play " month distorting the curve progression
very favoured arcade trade by likes of globalexchangetrading,tyler capital,sta etc,to mention just a few
all of whom use a mean reverting type approach and tend to avoid the nearby flies and the risk of dramatic policy induced curve shift

the driver is usually the body spread of which you have 3 legs

hope that helps
 
ecb sources indicating extension of liquidity measures at march 4 meeting
yield premium to cash being removed again
eonia flies all gone flat or slightly negative
m diff around par is interesting to short but not quite there yet
 
my curve positions seem to have got stale with little p/l change over last 10 days and i am stale of views

z/z dlrs - -1 tick at 141.5 keeping re instated 1/2 after liquidation at 150.5
z/m/z s stg -26 converence to h/u/h now only 10 ticks liquidated blalnce
m diff s stg + 3 ticks short at par

am tempted given the stellar performance of short front eibor fly now -13 (shame greek debacle stopped out 2nd time position set but such is trading) to short m/u/z the turn (z) is in my favour but do not really like u position long at sub 1 percent on an outright basis
expect it will behave similarly to the h/m/u ie tend positive in a downmove as sep will most likely be lead month and that will be the opp for a short
might be worth looking at synthetic sep through options

macro wise my views very much unchanged
cb,s very clear messages it is just a question as always of timing
for teh liquidity removal
 
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