Quote from dunleggin:
imo, the diverse motivations of players in the bond/money markets facilitates many hypotheses...i think it would take someone on a desk to yea or nay that
Seen heavy buying in the Jan 73 calls (which expire 1/14 into H5 positions) Prudential 40k, JPM 10k, for 1.5 ticks. Why? Perhaps a flyer bet on a Fed pause. H5 is trading almost fully-priced for a Fed hike to 2.75% at the Mar 22nd FOMC. H5 expires about a week before. A weak NFP tomorrow and/or Fed statement Dec mtg suggesting a pause at Feb's mtg, H5 can rally 25bps. Any alternative ideas?