Eurodollar Futures (GE)--anyone else trading these?

i position trade the ge cal spreads and its been tough the last week or so. im staying out until the trend gives solid direction again

as for the reason - am no economic guru, but all i see is the dollar going down the pan every day.

bearing in mind what the underlying is for ge, all i can assume is the commercials are positioning them selves to reflect this

i hear bonds have also lost their volatility

as greenie is talking today maybe there will be some solid direction following from that - or may be this is just 'run the stops season' b4 thanxgivin

good luck guys.
 
Quote from FredBloggs:

i position trade the ge cal spreads and its been tough the last week or so. im staying out until the trend gives solid direction again

as for the reason - am no economic guru, but all i see is the dollar going down the pan every day.

bearing in mind what the underlying is for ge, all i can assume is the commercials are positioning them selves to reflect this

i hear bonds have also lost their volatility

as greenie is talking today maybe there will be some solid direction following from that - or may be this is just 'run the stops season' b4 thanxgivin

good luck guys.
More...

Greenspan can't be more blunt


The market has reacted to a Bloomberg headline.
According to the headline, Chrm Greenspan warned, 'those not hedged for higher rates to lose money'.

Now that's giving direction...
 
Just reading: "Former Dallas Fed president McTeer says that the bank may be close to neutral. May need to raise rates fewer times than people now think. Says a neutral rate is near to 2%, unless inflation starts blooming" - Hmm, zero real rates?

Fred B. , 1yr cal trades have been tough, I agree. Probably need a hint of a pause in tightening cycle to widen some of these.

meanwhile, the smile returns to trdnglife's visage.....
 
this is v true (both above posts)

2 early for me to take a postion yet - but if we close around where we currently are, then it looks like the cal spreads may have turned.

does anyone subscribe to mrci (moore)?

i was wondering if there is anything seasonal around this time?
 
Quote from dunleggin:

Just reading: "Former Dallas Fed president McTeer says that the bank may be close to neutral. May need to raise rates fewer times than people now think. Says a neutral rate is near to 2%, unless inflation starts blooming" - Hmm, zero real rates?

Fred B. , 1yr cal trades have been tough, I agree. Probably need a hint of a pause in tightening cycle to widen some of these.

meanwhile, the smile returns to trdnglife's visage.....
More...

there may be a reason McTeer is a 'former' governor now...neutral as indicated by virtually every other 'current' governor is between 3-5% and more likely 4-5%...neutral almost by definition, and almost intuitively cannot be Zero real rates...it just doesn't compute...

as for today's action...frankly it's about time we saw this kind of move as people unwound some of their IMO irrational longs...but really, next week I bet you see a couple of crap range days creeping higher...it's just that kind of market...savour the volatility today, it's likely the last you see until nfp in December...someone please tell me I'm wrong...lol.
 
Quote from Bix35:

Greenspan can't be more blunt


The market has reacted to a Bloomberg headline.
According to the headline, Chrm Greenspan warned, 'those not hedged for higher rates to lose money'.

Now that's giving direction...
More...

direction yes...well, maybe until we see more of the hard data at the end of this month and then waiting for nfp in Dec...US thanksgiving next week means today may be the last 'good' trading day of this month...
 
Quote from trdinglife:

there may be a reason McTeer is a 'former' governor now...neutral as indicated by virtually every other 'current' governor is between 3-5% and more likely 4-5%...neutral almost by definition, and almost intuitively cannot be Zero real rates...it just doesn't compute...

as for today's action...frankly it's about time we saw this kind of move as people unwound some of their IMO irrational longs...but really, next week I bet you see a couple of crap range days creeping higher...it's just that kind of market...savour the volatility today, it's likely the last you see until nfp in December...someone please tell me I'm wrong...lol.
More...

G7 consulting group claims their sources say neutral is approx 5.5%
 
Quote from trdinglife:

direction yes...well, maybe until we see more of the hard data at the end of this month and then waiting for nfp in Dec...US thanksgiving next week means today may be the last 'good' trading day of this month...
More...
I wish I disagreed, but I don't...
 
Quote from Bix35:

G7 consulting group claims their sources say neutral is approx 5.5%
More...

exactly...and all the material I've read by Fed watchers is suggesting at least 4.5-5%...of course the big question is how quickly this rate will be reached...ED futures seem to be perpetually in disbelief that this may actually happen relatively quickly...either way we need more clear statements from the Fed...why does Greenspan have to phrase it the way he did today? just say that higher rates are coming sooner rather than later instead of using this seemingly off the cuff remark...although something tells me it was really more calculated than that...
 
"However, I believe it to be very important that the FOMC not go on a forced march to some point estimate of the equilibrium real federal funds rate" - Fed Vice-Chair Ferguson, concluding a lengthy speech on real rates three weeks ago.

Quoting from the same speech, " (G)ives us a good reason to hold the real rate below even the intermediate-run notion of its equilibrium to allow the economy to be firmly set on a path that will shrink the pool of these underused resources over a reasonable period".

SFO Fed President Janet Yellen, a few days earlier, also spoke of a 'long-term equilibrium rate and an intermediate-term equilibrium rate' .

Fed watchers Greg Ip and John Berry wrote after the recent FOMC that the statement wording still left the pause option open.

Both Paul McCulley's and Bill Gross' most recent commentaries on PIMCO argue that the Taylor rule needs to be discarded and a different approach to real rates adopted.

Another former Fed president, William Austin, remarked on McTeer's comment to the effect that it was well-informed and highly credible. In fact, McTeer was quite hawkish on quickening the pace of hikes prior to August.

Merely to illustrate that not everyone buys into the fascination with an academic notion of real rates based on historic averages.
 
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