EURO/USD hard work

FWIW

http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2013/11/dont-underestimate-the-us-dollar/

The author makes these points:

This lines up with multiple macro drivers, all of which disfavored the dollar circa 2011 and are now in the process of transition:

1. The introduction and embrace of QE highlighted dovish US policy vs hawkish European policy — which is now shifting.

2. US investors sent large quantities of capital abroad to invest in emerging market equities and debt — now not so much.

3. The US deficit is contracting due to forced budget cuts and curtailed government spending.

4. A low return, slow-growth world favors mature assets and mature companies (like US blue chips), in turn favoring the USD.

kid.fx.cross .... Maybe there is something to parking a big chunk of cash, and long term holding ( a year or more).

kid.fx.cross .... To your first post on this thread, this author is definitely negative (in the same article on the Aussie dollar).
 
Quote from deucy28:


kid.fx.cross .... Maybe there is something to parking a big chunk of cash, and long term holding ( a year or more).
More...


Both nations usd / jpy have bugs looking for a windshield to hit.

The bigger one and first one will splatter on Japan's.

Parking capital long term with this notion appears to be a high probability of a gain. Invest and hold.

Soon enough for you ?
 
Grant Williams' periodic piece, Hmmm dated 12-16-2013 (Mauldin's Economics) has numerous articles, but one includes the following verbiage....including within it a quote from Ewen Cameron Watt, chief strategist for the BlackRock Investment Institute....

"The banking system in the eurozone periphery is under water, with a non-performing loan pile of €1.5 trillion to €2 trillion. Germany and other core countries are unlikely to pick up the tab. Eastern Europe could become the epicentre of funding risk in 2014 due to big refinancings," it said. BlackRock said the eurozone is "stuck in a monetary corset", failing to generate the nominal GDP growth of 3pc to 5pc needed for economies to outgrow their debt burdens.

The report continues:
The European Central Bank has allowed passive tightening to occur as banks repay funds under the ECB's long-term lending operations. The group says the ECB may have to start printing money, but the politics are toxic. "German opposition is a roadblock, unless the risk of deflation expands beyond Europe's southern tier," it said.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/quoth-the-maven-evermore#Why-Do-We-Value-Gold-

Elsewhere in this Grant Williams issue is the following 5 paragraphs:

To say the eurozone is out of danger is so complacent as to be laughable. All kinds of people have all kinds of reasons for painting as rosy a picture as possible, whether they're trying to sell something, gain re-election or just because and this is entirely understandable. They're sick to death of all this post-sub-prime angst.

Yet, consider the facts, and then ask yourself if the single currency really is a coherent, sustainable structure, or if, in fact, the entire edifice is balanced on the head of a pin.

Yes, Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes". And so he set up the Outright Monetary Transactions programme, endlessly cited as the eurozone's main stabilising factor as it allows the ECB to buy "unlimited" bonds issued by otherwise bankrupt eurozone nations, essentially out of printed money.

As soon as the OMT was announced, the "doom-loop", within which busted banks and governments drag each other down, was apparently broken. The clouds parted, and the eurozone's turmoil was no more.

The trouble is that the OMT is a mirage. Under it, Draghi hasn't yet bought a single government bond. Nor can he, because it can only be used if a country is already in a Greek-style bail-out involving endless humiliating conditions and democratic subjugation at the hand of the International Monetary Fund and others....

(same link as above)
 
Oh my !

And here I have been so in vogue with universal sentiment about a
V
V
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Euro going down against the dollar. How many posts have I made on this thread to support that popular belief ?

If this does not get a reaction in this thread, I will have in my suspense date calendar a note to myself to come back to this thread mid-2014 and gloat ! So much for a sleepy thread.

There is a compelling case the US/Euro is going to the 1.40's and can see 1.50's within 6 months.

If you can make a compelling case with reference/s for the same, I will show you my compelling case, too.

Show me yours and I will show you mine !


Because I prefer to be a contributor to Elite Trader, at least I will put on a hint here:

China
 
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