EURO/USD hard work

12 hours into the trading week 20131209 EURUSD opened gap up, went up, then down below previous week's high, followed by rapid move to new high.

For what little it may concern anybody the early up move stopped a few ticks below my limit sell orders so I couldn't lift the average price of my running short position. I reduced size (buy) at around 1.3702, booking a loss, then increased it around 1.3726 and brought my average price to 1.3701 (currently about 20 ticks under water and standing at 45% of total equity)

IMO the upside potential is not exhausted with new highs likely for the next 12 hours. That notwithstanding I am keeping my losing short going expecting a down move at higher resolution. I'll likely be doing some more loss taking buying in the next few hours to reduce the position so as to be able to increase it again on new highs.

-ras72
 
Quote from deucy28:


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3911258#post3911258

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3911451#post3911451

The question I made was related to the richness of the Euro. I am thinking not just of any chart characteristic but also fundamentals. Does that not move the needle in having traders take positions ? I have heard two radio interviews of analysts doubting the viability of notions that the European economy is recovering in a credible, sustaining way. Longer term consideration is the quick sand Europe is on with respect to the PIIGS countries of Europe. Of course, I appreciate traders' time horizons and distinctions between positions in trades, including longer term trades and investments.
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Week In Review
Issue: # 192 December 9, 2013

Data supplied by Dent Research/Delray Beach Publishing

European Monetary Union (EMU, those that use the euro) PMI Edged Higher... The Purchasing Manager's Index for the group nudged up from 51.3 to 51.6, with orders slightly up while employment dropped.
What it means - Keep in mind that 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction. A reading of 51.6 is pretty lame, considering the cost of money and how much stimulus has been poured into the world economy. What makes this worse is that the employment part of the report showed a cut in jobs for the 22nd month in a row. That's not a recovery in action.

EMU Purchasing Price Index Down 1.4%... The measure of prices paid by manufacturers fell by more than 1% in November, mostly due to a drop in energy costs.
What it means - This is one of those weird reports. PPI was down in the euro zone, which would seem like a good thing. And indeed it was because of lower energy prices, which actually is good. However, after stripping out energy prices, the report is still on the negative side, while the ECB is desperately trying to create inflation. Go figure. Expect very low interest rates and accommodative measures to last for years as Europe tries to climb out of its deflationary vortex.
 
Ok. My 'short' story didn't end well. I woke up to find price spiked past the 1.3746 level I was counting on. Judging by the Stops Run that ensued I wasn't the only one! Too aggressive and in too heavy. 60% loss.

See more upside. Reversed and long at 1.3750. Accumulating. Let's see if I get cut both ways now. :)
I still think the current uptrend from 1.3294 will be followed by a retest and will short again... sometime.

- ras72
 
Is it the reason why EUR goes up?

ECB's Draghi calls for banking union, economic reforms
Tue Dec 10, 2013 6:36am EST Print This Article [-] Text [+]
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi addresses a news conference at the European parliament in Brussels December 17, 2012. REUTERS/Laurent Dubrule
1 of 1Full Size
ROME (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called on national governments to deliver economic reforms and complete a banking union, saying the ECB had won time for action by delivering price stability over the past 15 years.

"It is now crucial to complete this agenda at the European and national level," he said in a speech at a conference in Rome on Tuesday, adding that governments should focus on key reform priorities: "completing the banking union, implementing growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms in labor and product markets".

Draghi said the ECB had to keep public trust by sticking to its mandate of delivering price stability and dismissed concern that low inflation threatened to pitch Europe into a Japanese-style deflationary cycle.

(Reporting By James Mackenzie, editing by Danilo Masoni)
 
if I was a fundamentalist, I would say it looks like they are finally coming in to buy that USD, probably a little response to taper talk which is starting to get a little more serious. So that would put a cap on EUR at 1.37

but then again, I really got burned the last time betting on taper.

smarter than me say they will never taper until they lose control of the bond market

and that is why I am not a fundamentalist, but I do watch and try to observe

Like the man said, "You can observe a lot just by watching."
 
Quote from wwatson1:

I'm staying away from it for now, it's too risky, it went into a short term sell on my 1 min charts then went nuts and into a buy, It's far to high to sustain that rally
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If you want my models to try to get that pair at your will, let me know.
 
Quote from Handle123:

EURUSD long, meduim, and short term are in uptrends, I been slowly adding to my long position since June. I added right after the report came out yesterday. Markets have same patterns year after year, decade after decade, very little ever changes.

It comes down to timeframe, cause I have taken shorts(intraday less than 60 minute charts) even though long term is up for me. I don't buy new highs, I am strictly retracement trader for adding on and counter-trend on new contract highs/lows providing they are so much away from nine year highs/lows.

When in doubt, use futures options to hedge.
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It is many times easier to make money if the time frame is large. The problem people have is that they do not have capital. You seem to have capital so you do not need to trade at lower time frames. I think you also would make more money that way, and is 16 times easier if holding is say one year. Investing is a piece of cake compared to trading.

The real issue that people have is capital. The top trader is the investor.
 
Quote from kid.fx.cross:

if I was a fundamentalist, I would say it looks like they are finally coming in to buy that USD, probably a little response to taper talk which is starting to get a little more serious. So that would put a cap on EUR at 1.37

but then again, I really got burned the last time betting on taper.

smarter than me say they will never taper until they lose control of the bond market

and that is why I am not a fundamentalist, but I do watch and try to observe

Like the man said, "You can observe a lot just by watching."
More...

I am not fundamentalist. I just try to find fundamental reason and what the market is discounting when I see a trend is building. So, I can hold my position.
 
Quote from investor50:

I am not fundamentalist. I just try to find fundamental reason and what the market is discounting when I see a trend is building. So, I can hold my position.
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yes, there are many fundamental analysts who I really respect, but very rarely are more than half of them right more than 50% of the time over five years.

There are very large (many pages) books written on why it is almost darn near impossible to predict rates. And rates are the lifeblood of forex.

But yes, wouldn't it be nice if you could just predict what rates are going to do and then bet on forex accordingly?

I try to run my business more like a hardware store than a fortune teller's parlor.

The hardest thing to do was to resist the temptation to buy low and sell high. For many years I thought that was my "edge".

Now I just let them stop me out. It's a real bitch, because when you get stopped out, you are getting the worse fill at the worse possible time.

To me, size is everything. It takes forever. but eventually, if the fickle market ever trends (and most of the time it just chops) my winners are much larger size than my losers.

But there is hell to pay along the way.
 
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