Euro to 1.60!
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
Quite a few apparently, at least a TV interview of those "out-and-about" american tourists suggested this. btw, here was the Reuters story - http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL1758265520080317?rpc=92
1.61 maybe, 1.63 as a max, I can't see it going much further, the ECB are already expressing concerns and market reaction can be seen just from Juncker's comments today, it won't take a lot to see traders bailing out of short dollar positions. A dollar freefall is out of the question in my opinion, once Europe stop fighting inflation and focus on growth, and the US stop trying to promote growth (or rather save the economy from total meltdown) and start to focus on inflation the tables will be reversed. When that will come is all that is debatable, not if, in my opinion.
Differing opinions are what make a market I guess
Agree with the cableman. The Fed will stop cutting and have to focus on inflation before long. I'm betting April is the last cut, and that it's 25bps.
We need to see a commodity correction first - a prolonged one. That will temper the ECB's rhetoric. But I don't expect them to take their eye off inflation unless inflation gives them cause to do so.
We need to see a commodity correction first - a prolonged one. That will temper the ECB's rhetoric. But I don't expect them to take their eye off inflation unless inflation gives them cause to do so.
Quote from cabletrader:
1.61 maybe, 1.63 as a max, I can't see it going much further, the ECB are already expressing concerns and market reaction can be seen just from Juncker's comments today, it won't take a lot to see traders bailing out of short dollar positions. A dollar freefall is out of the question in my opinion, once Europe stop fighting inflation and focus on growth, and the US stop trying to promote growth (or rather save the economy from total meltdown) and start to focus on inflation the tables will be reversed. When that will come is all that is debatable, not if, in my opinion.
Differing opinions are what make a market I guess
The problem I see is that the Eurozone is eterally obsessed with inflation, with growth always taking a backseat - the ECB was just about to increase rates because of inflation when the fed did an abrupt about-turn. Furthermore, imo, europe is a different beast entirely to the US, with too many countries with their own agenda - they lack direction, you might say
Although, now that 'they' have taken ratification of the Lisbon treaty out of the hands of the people (more specifically, those people that would probably/definitely have voted against it, had they been allowed a referendum, France/U.K.) we may be one step closer to a "just one big country" status...
I hope you're right about the USD though, as this 3-5 year slide has been depressing...
Fed speakers today - all of them - spoke very hawkishly. I'm wondering if they're trying to talk the market out of ANY hike whatsoever. Yellen (who is a dove) yesterday mentioned inflation expectations in being key now. Fisher, Plosser and Lacker (sounds like reindeer) all said they were not comfortable with more cuts.
Once this thought gets mainstream, the Euro move up is done.
Once this thought gets mainstream, the Euro move up is done.
6 pips away from 1.60