I can't believe why it was painful to see the Euro cross 1.50, 1.60 is nothing 1.70 will be awsome.
Euro to 1.60!
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
Agree, I'm scaling into a short starting at 1.6050 for 1.4700 by September/October
No yards here, more like millimetres
"Looks like it's going to the moon. All depends on Trichet. If he keeps mentioning strong viligance to price stability, it's all over. 1.60, then 1.65, then 1.70. It aint gonna stop." in the "New All-time High Eur/usd" thread.
Cf.: "No way. I think this is going to hit 1.60 and then come down like the house of cards it is. I'll take my profit at 1.5999. I'm not greedy." in this thread.
The first quote suggests a no change in Trichet's policy, the second suggests, the tide will turn at 1.6 meaning a reversal in policy. At least this is what I inferred. I was just curious if you found anything worthwile to mention that would suggest an ebb is coming?
As for what Trichet should/would/will do, I believe his #1 priority is taming inflation that's currently way above the target 2%.
The "aint gonna stop" comment was actually tongue-in-cheek. Obviously it'll stop someplace.
What I think is going to happen is a 1.60 hit, possibly, and then a massive move to take profits. The "rate argument" about the Fed continuing to "aggressively cut rates" is quickly losing steam. The Fed can't continue to be aggressive, and we all know it. They've got - maybe - one more cut left. I think after the next Fed meeting the attention is going to turn to inflation quick. When it does, I expect to see a very much needed and significant correction in crude and other commodities.
Once these commodities begin to relax somewhat, the ECB will begin to mention that inflation looks to be more and more under control. That will signal a shift in ECB stance a much needed (even more so than Crude) correction in the Euro.
The Euro Zone has an enormous amount of problems outside of Germany. They'll soon come home to roost and manifest themselves. But I think the ECB is about 8-10 months behind the Fed in moving, just as the economic cycle has always been about 6-8 months behind in the Euro Zone.
What I think is going to happen is a 1.60 hit, possibly, and then a massive move to take profits. The "rate argument" about the Fed continuing to "aggressively cut rates" is quickly losing steam. The Fed can't continue to be aggressive, and we all know it. They've got - maybe - one more cut left. I think after the next Fed meeting the attention is going to turn to inflation quick. When it does, I expect to see a very much needed and significant correction in crude and other commodities.
Once these commodities begin to relax somewhat, the ECB will begin to mention that inflation looks to be more and more under control. That will signal a shift in ECB stance a much needed (even more so than Crude) correction in the Euro.
The Euro Zone has an enormous amount of problems outside of Germany. They'll soon come home to roost and manifest themselves. But I think the ECB is about 8-10 months behind the Fed in moving, just as the economic cycle has always been about 6-8 months behind in the Euro Zone.
ZC ONCE SAID 1.6.....WE GOT IT TODAY....WELL IN FEW TIME FROM NOW.
HERE ARE MY PROJECTIONS TO THE NEXT 2 MONTHS, WE ARE GOING TO SPIKE TO 1.7 WITHIN 60 DAYS RANGE , SO WATCH OUT FOR SAYINGS THAT PREDICTS RETRACEMENTS AT 1.6...IT WILL NOT HAPPEN...I REPEAT WE ARE IN STRUCTURAL CHANGING ZONE TO SETTLE ROUND 1.65-1.7...THAN NEW RULES WILL BE SET ACCORDING TO ECB OUTLOOKS AND FED NEXT MOVES..
Z CoMaNdAtOrE
Speak up Z CoMaNdAtOrE, we can't hear you.
I think all that is debatable is when it breaks 1.60, not if. Practically all those "in the know" suggest that 1.60-1.70 is a foregone conclusion - and rightly so imo. As long as the US continues it "policy" of just borrowing more to pay its bills, the greenback will continue to decline. Someone posted in another thread that the US has spent (read, borrowed) in the region of $46,000 for every person in the US so far - and that's just on the Iraq war! Crazy figures... And if the likes of Saudia Arabia actually decides to un-peg its currency from the USD - look out below...
btw, the was an article recently that reported that many european travel agencies will no longer accept the USD due to its rate of devaluation. Yes, the global balance of power is changing, just not in the US/europes favour...
btw, the was an article recently that reported that many european travel agencies will no longer accept the USD due to its rate of devaluation. Yes, the global balance of power is changing, just not in the US/europes favour...