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Euro Currency Futures 2006
- Thread starter downrivertrader
- Start date
I see the H&S, but didn't the neckline fail? Maybe I am looking at it sideways or something?
Yeap, but we have to wait untill the end of month. If the close will be under 1.19 then the breakout of neckline is true.
Actually, I see a big divergence on the weekly which points to the topside. This is troublesome for me, but I don't trade based on indicators.
You should be very attentive using weekly divergences becase when they appear the trend can go more 300-400 points in the same direction. But later.. of course we will see good correction.
I use divergences but I prefer daily, 4h, 1h chart.
The Dollar Index is something I keep a close eye on. This is an interesting longer term view.
I stretched a Regression Channel from the all time high on my data in 1985 to the low in September of 1992. The retrace went back to the 2% border in 2001 and 2002 but could not break out. The dollar collapsed and fell, found some support on the 1% channel line and continued to fall thru the median line (cyan line). It tried aggressively to push back up into the top channel in May of 2004, but could not close in the channel. Price fell until 2005 when a reversal occurred and an assault on the median was made again. This time it pushed thru and closed in the top channel. It has now fallen back to the median and slightly below here in January so far. If the $ Index can close above the median and back in the channel, it would be very bullish in my opinion. If not, who knows.
I consider what it would mean if the index begins to fall toward the bottom channel again. We should all think about it. It may mean the collapse of our monetary system or worse. Soooooo, I am putting a little faith in the good old USA. I think we are stronger than the world gives us credit for.
Just some weekend thoughts.
The View DownRiver.
DRT
PS - I am sorry if the chart is big, but no choice because I used data from back when I was only 15 years old.
I stretched a Regression Channel from the all time high on my data in 1985 to the low in September of 1992. The retrace went back to the 2% border in 2001 and 2002 but could not break out. The dollar collapsed and fell, found some support on the 1% channel line and continued to fall thru the median line (cyan line). It tried aggressively to push back up into the top channel in May of 2004, but could not close in the channel. Price fell until 2005 when a reversal occurred and an assault on the median was made again. This time it pushed thru and closed in the top channel. It has now fallen back to the median and slightly below here in January so far. If the $ Index can close above the median and back in the channel, it would be very bullish in my opinion. If not, who knows.
I consider what it would mean if the index begins to fall toward the bottom channel again. We should all think about it. It may mean the collapse of our monetary system or worse. Soooooo, I am putting a little faith in the good old USA. I think we are stronger than the world gives us credit for.
Just some weekend thoughts.
The View DownRiver.
DRT
PS - I am sorry if the chart is big, but no choice because I used data from back when I was only 15 years old.
Attachments
I made a mis-statement in the post above. I meant to say that the regression connects the 1985 high and the July 2001 pullback high. Sorry.
The View Down River
Sunday, Jan 22, 2006
Euro FX (EC)
Hope everyone had a good weekend. Just wanted to recap things for me. I am currently short at 1.2160 and I am looking for a sustained move down. I guess we could continue to range trade but I think the odds are against it.
For those of you looking up, I think we could quite possibly see a surge higher out of the gate this week, but I am betting on 1.2238 area to turn it around and head down. If price surges thru this level and pulls back to find support here then I will cover quickly and look to get long with you. The next target I see would be 1.2346.
If the 1.2238 level rejects price, then it would be a good place to get short with a tight stop and look for a move back to the channel below. This may be the high for a long time to come.
Good luck trading and be careful. There is a lot of pent up, coiled spring stuff in the works.
Sunday, Jan 22, 2006
Euro FX (EC)
Hope everyone had a good weekend. Just wanted to recap things for me. I am currently short at 1.2160 and I am looking for a sustained move down. I guess we could continue to range trade but I think the odds are against it.
For those of you looking up, I think we could quite possibly see a surge higher out of the gate this week, but I am betting on 1.2238 area to turn it around and head down. If price surges thru this level and pulls back to find support here then I will cover quickly and look to get long with you. The next target I see would be 1.2346.
If the 1.2238 level rejects price, then it would be a good place to get short with a tight stop and look for a move back to the channel below. This may be the high for a long time to come.
Good luck trading and be careful. There is a lot of pent up, coiled spring stuff in the works.
Lets recognize that current situation is very common. You can find 10 reasons for EURUSD to go higher and 10 reasons to be lower. But the market is very neutral right now and right here. Lets wait for the breakout of the range.
I have attached image with some techical levels.
I have attached image with some techical levels.
Attachments
Price surged higher....now at 1.2264 as stops were triggered. I am still holding short for now. I want to see what the reaction is as London and NY get moving.
Take care. If pain increases greatly, I will cover.
DRT
Take care. If pain increases greatly, I will cover.
DRT
Price now at 1.2312 and I am still short. I am still in because of what I see happening in other places. I am not suggesting anyone should be short here. The pain is getting very intense and depending on what happens in NY I may exit.
Good trading everyone
DRT
Good trading everyone
DRT
Since it is Monday, I thought I would share something I read in TA of S&C December issue. Normally, I don't take to much of this to heart, but there was an article that dealt with statistical analysis that I thought was very interesting. If you didn't read it, I would recommend it.
Among some other statistics....there was one that struck me.
A lengthy study shows the EUR/USD makes the weeks high or low 57% of the time on a Monday. Also, Friday marked turning points 57% of the time.
Very interesting reading if you get the chance.
Good trading.
DRT
Among some other statistics....there was one that struck me.
A lengthy study shows the EUR/USD makes the weeks high or low 57% of the time on a Monday. Also, Friday marked turning points 57% of the time.
Very interesting reading if you get the chance.
Good trading.
DRT