EUR will skyrocket this afternoon

I completely closed out my EUR short going into the weekend. It's getting close to the point where they need to give Greece some money and I think that there's more chance of a positive surprise this weekend than a negative one. I'd like to see the EUR pop for a week or two and then reshort it.
 
This is like throwing money down a rat hole...how in hell are the Greeks ever going to be able to pay it back...more than 50% of the citizens work directly or indirectly for the government....no production...no sales...no profit...no repayment of debt.

All the EU have done is taped up the leak in the pool...pressure mounts and it leaks again...bigger leak...bigger debt...there has to be a point when somebody yells, "ENOUGH ALREADY"...water cascades into the rest of Europe...

And this is just the beginning for Europe....how do you spell tsunami?


:mad:


NiN
 
NiN, it'll eventually kill the EUR. I'm reading more articles indicating that's the inevitable path.
In the very short term though, PIIGS bond spreads came in a bit on Friday after coming in significantly on Thursday. I felt that the risk of a large gap up this weekend was too great to hold. It came down to risk/return for me - I saw a much greater downside risk holding over the weekend. The nice thing about the currency markets is that I can always reopen my position anytime I want after 5PM Eastern Sunday night.
 
Looks like closing out my short was a bad idea. I reopened it in the 1.328s. I knew I should've sold some in the 1.332s; the downward trend was looking obvious - I hesitated for a few minutes and it cost me ~40 pips.
 
NiN, it was a quick post-mortem on my trades over the last few days, looking at them in a 'perfect' set of trades. I must confess that it was a very stress-free weekend by sitting in all cash.
I knew that the EMU increased the size of the bailout and was concerned that the formal announcement, which took place over the weekend as I expected, would cause a 200 pip gap up. It was only about 50 and I was surprised at the speed at which it burned off.
In all, I was happy with my trades as I consider them to have reduced risk significantly. Heck, I'm already ~100 pips in the green in less than 24 hours.

I'm now going to start watching the German Bund. I expect this bailout to drive up Germany's cost of funds. The EMU is quickly going to learn that you can't save everyone in a leaky lifeboat.
A quick glance at German 2, 5, and 10 yr Bunds shows yields rising while Greek bond yields are falling.
 
I think the fact that Greece has agreed to accept austerity measures that will cause an even more severe recession does not look very positive at all for the euro.

I kind of wonder whether people will start to anticipate lower demand for oil if we get another recession. The Aussie started diving a few hours ago.
 
Yeah, I just noticed that.

Want to hear something really funny? I just took a 200 pip profit on the euro and only used 1/10 micro lot. I only made $2. I can't believe I did that. I mean I could have made so much more. Duh.

Anyway, I think I'm done working on/fine tuning my method after 18 months of work. I think this is the time to scale up my trades and try to take advantage of an "obvious" situation.
 
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