Thanks. Last time I did that I got a concussion from my head hitting the monitors and passed out.
DRT
DRT
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Eur/USD
- Thread starter ForexPro
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I see dollar bullishness everywhere in my charts though I can not explain it. It is something we are all missing. Always is. I think we will all look back and wonder what happened in a few months. Of course, I could be wrong. I have posistioned myself for it in my long term account.
Might buy some calls on the Dollar Index if I can figure it out also.
Long USDCAD
Long USDJPY
Short AUDUSD
Short Euro FX
DRT
Might buy some calls on the Dollar Index if I can figure it out also.
Long USDCAD
Long USDJPY
Short AUDUSD
Short Euro FX
DRT
I'm all for gut feelings, but when you say "I see dollar bullishness everywhere in my charts, but I just can't explain it" that sounds rather hokey. Explain what you "see". Do you see a strong resistance level in the dollar index that you don't believe will be broken? Do you see an Elliott Wave or something? Do you see "Go Long USD" in your Alphabits cereal?
Explain, man.
Explain, man.
More lit the alphabits. You still eat those?
I realize it is a hokey thing to say and sometimes I wish I would just keep my mouth shut (fingers shut) about it. I really don't want all the arguments from everyone. Like many of you, I stare at these damn markets constantly. I have stated on a zillion occassions that I really do not know much about fundamentals. If you look back a few posts you will see what I study. Long Term price distribution. Bell Curves and the like. In the big picture the bottom of the long term bell curve needs to be balanced. I realize we are talking months and years here so to discuss it is somewhat pointless.
Most people will see the dollar index as in a downtrend. I see it as in an uptrend which began in earnest on September 11, 1992. I am not going to go into it. Too much laughter from everyone but I have my reasons.
What I really notice is that all my long term studies indcate a change is at hand. These are studies dating back for years and many would argue they have no relevance now but I ignore that. These changes will take a long time to develop, but I think they are dollar bullish. After all Rome was not built in a day, and neither will China, India or the rest of the "hot new" emerging world.
Sorry that's all I got. I will likely get long the Euro a few times on a short term basis, but the dollar is going to command the next several years. Maybe CNBC or Bloomberg will have me on as a contrarian or something.
If I am proven wrong, then I will re-evaluate. Until then I am just hokey old DRT.
I realize it is a hokey thing to say and sometimes I wish I would just keep my mouth shut (fingers shut) about it. I really don't want all the arguments from everyone. Like many of you, I stare at these damn markets constantly. I have stated on a zillion occassions that I really do not know much about fundamentals. If you look back a few posts you will see what I study. Long Term price distribution. Bell Curves and the like. In the big picture the bottom of the long term bell curve needs to be balanced. I realize we are talking months and years here so to discuss it is somewhat pointless.
Most people will see the dollar index as in a downtrend. I see it as in an uptrend which began in earnest on September 11, 1992. I am not going to go into it. Too much laughter from everyone but I have my reasons.
What I really notice is that all my long term studies indcate a change is at hand. These are studies dating back for years and many would argue they have no relevance now but I ignore that. These changes will take a long time to develop, but I think they are dollar bullish. After all Rome was not built in a day, and neither will China, India or the rest of the "hot new" emerging world.
Sorry that's all I got. I will likely get long the Euro a few times on a short term basis, but the dollar is going to command the next several years. Maybe CNBC or Bloomberg will have me on as a contrarian or something.
If I am proven wrong, then I will re-evaluate. Until then I am just hokey old DRT.
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Heh...Alphabits haven't been on a shelf in a supermarket where I've lived in the last decade, so no, I don't. I wish I could find them, though (that and a lot more, but such is life as an expat).
I'm not trying to argue with you, DRT. My intent is to understand your thoughts. Like some others on this board, I find your posts insightful and thoughtful. I don't always agree with you, but you make me think about whether I've missed something in my own analysis, and that's the sole reason I come to ET - to find viewpoints either in-line with mine to confirm, or out of alignment to offer a contrasting view. Unfortunately, many posters just say "dollar going up" or "in my opinion, it's a dollar positive environment" without saying why. This doesn't help me compare or contrast, and it doesn't help posters who might be very new to the game understand.
As for trends, trends are like statistics. You can shape them whatever way you want in order for them to tell the story you need them to. An uptrend since 1992 is just as valid as a downtrend since, say 2001. Time period is everything.
But to me, and this is just an observation so take it how you want, you seem to be an intraday trader (with many of your EUR trades). If that is the case, why are you looking for trends and directional impulses in a timeframe way, way outside what you trade?
If I was making a EUR/USD trade for the next year, then perhaps I'd look at these long term charts. But for now,. the trend is clearly up because I trade the period in which the trend exists.
I'm not trying to argue with you, DRT. My intent is to understand your thoughts. Like some others on this board, I find your posts insightful and thoughtful. I don't always agree with you, but you make me think about whether I've missed something in my own analysis, and that's the sole reason I come to ET - to find viewpoints either in-line with mine to confirm, or out of alignment to offer a contrasting view. Unfortunately, many posters just say "dollar going up" or "in my opinion, it's a dollar positive environment" without saying why. This doesn't help me compare or contrast, and it doesn't help posters who might be very new to the game understand.
As for trends, trends are like statistics. You can shape them whatever way you want in order for them to tell the story you need them to. An uptrend since 1992 is just as valid as a downtrend since, say 2001. Time period is everything.
But to me, and this is just an observation so take it how you want, you seem to be an intraday trader (with many of your EUR trades). If that is the case, why are you looking for trends and directional impulses in a timeframe way, way outside what you trade?
If I was making a EUR/USD trade for the next year, then perhaps I'd look at these long term charts. But for now,. the trend is clearly up because I trade the period in which the trend exists.
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