You may be sorry you asked..
Truth is I have no idea what is going to happen. I am not very articulate when it comes to expressing my views on this. I am really just a trader not a marketician or economist. Usually, I make the most money when I just try to use some common sense thoughts on why people buy and sell.
I am glad to hear from a EURO FX trader. This is the bread and butter of my bank account growth. I trade it fairly short term though. I trade the spot forex market also but with a different methodology. I started trading it so I could gain membership in these forums.
This is the EURUSD thread so I will not say anything else about futures.
Now back to your question....
how long do you usually hold on to your positions?
Sometimes intraday, sometimes intraweek. I do what the maket tells me. I do not use some silly rule that says "stick to your rules". Recently I got short leading up to the FOMC decision. The market told me to scrap my view and get long. So I did. I got lucky and the pair soared. I am now short again and probably getting ready to get burned so I am watching closely. Not that it will do any good. So the answer to your question is that I trade what I see in the market for this pair. It is hard to do anything else unless you have a big account like Gates or Soros.
Why do you think that Euro is going to decline against the dollar? I'm just curious since I'm playing this opposite side here but using futures. Went long on approx spot price of 1.2825
I mentioned previously that I trade a technical methodology that relies on price distribution (long, intermediate and short term) as part of my decision process. I do not trade entirely based on this, it is more of a confirmation or a guide to confirm key value areas to watch.
Long Term
From a Long Term prospective (looking back to 1985), the Euro is in the upper distribution and shows a path to maybe as high as 1.55. The balance point of the curve is somewhere near 1.14. There is a lot of unfinished value development below this 1.14 level. It will move down and satisfy this lower distribution, the question is will I be living to see it? I have to get my kids through school and I want a new boat that cost a lot of USD's.
Short Term
Price distribution is screaming at me that a move further up the top of the curve is at hand. If you have ever dabbled in this type of study you will know that TPO balance points change as time progresses. The short term targets are in the low/mid 1.30 area.
From my own short term (next week) methodology, I see a move down to 1.2750. This will be a test of the upper distribution move. We will likely bounce hard out of this area and it may in fact be a rocket launch upward. If we move below this area next week, it is my opinion that we may head lower into the 1.25's for now. The challenge will be if we head up strongly the first of next week. Do I get out? Anyway, that is my problem and not yours.
NOW THE HARD PART......(and dangerous part I might add)....
Traders Intuition, my instincts, gut...whatever you want to call it.
I can not explain this fundamentally. It is easy to explain it technically but there are a million different views on the technicals on this pair. At any given moment, I will agree with any of them. I know this will sound stupid but I do not care...Something is just not right. WHy does this pair have such favor? Just look at the way it is being traded right now. It is ridulous in my opinion. The real reason that there is such huge volatility is that nobody really knows what to do. What amazes me more than anything is how this pair reflects the worlds hatred of the U.S. Everyone ignores bad data out of Europe. Rarely will the Euro move down more than a blip.
I am going to give this a try but I am not good with fundamentals
Lastly and maybe the most important.....
Everyone is doom and gloom the dollar. Front page the WSJ, Time Mag, you name it. A sure sign that we should buy the dollar.
In any case....my gut tells me I do not want to own Euros with the rest of the herd. I learned a long time ago not to ignore my gut regardless of what all the trading jorunals say.
Sorry to ramble on....Good luck next week, month, year, decade.
Until then I guess I will just trade what I see
DRT
Truth is I have no idea what is going to happen. I am not very articulate when it comes to expressing my views on this. I am really just a trader not a marketician or economist. Usually, I make the most money when I just try to use some common sense thoughts on why people buy and sell.
I am glad to hear from a EURO FX trader. This is the bread and butter of my bank account growth. I trade it fairly short term though. I trade the spot forex market also but with a different methodology. I started trading it so I could gain membership in these forums.
This is the EURUSD thread so I will not say anything else about futures.Now back to your question....
how long do you usually hold on to your positions?
Sometimes intraday, sometimes intraweek. I do what the maket tells me. I do not use some silly rule that says "stick to your rules". Recently I got short leading up to the FOMC decision. The market told me to scrap my view and get long. So I did. I got lucky and the pair soared. I am now short again and probably getting ready to get burned so I am watching closely. Not that it will do any good. So the answer to your question is that I trade what I see in the market for this pair. It is hard to do anything else unless you have a big account like Gates or Soros.
Why do you think that Euro is going to decline against the dollar? I'm just curious since I'm playing this opposite side here but using futures. Went long on approx spot price of 1.2825
I mentioned previously that I trade a technical methodology that relies on price distribution (long, intermediate and short term) as part of my decision process. I do not trade entirely based on this, it is more of a confirmation or a guide to confirm key value areas to watch.
Long Term
From a Long Term prospective (looking back to 1985), the Euro is in the upper distribution and shows a path to maybe as high as 1.55. The balance point of the curve is somewhere near 1.14. There is a lot of unfinished value development below this 1.14 level. It will move down and satisfy this lower distribution, the question is will I be living to see it? I have to get my kids through school and I want a new boat that cost a lot of USD's.
Short Term
Price distribution is screaming at me that a move further up the top of the curve is at hand. If you have ever dabbled in this type of study you will know that TPO balance points change as time progresses. The short term targets are in the low/mid 1.30 area.
From my own short term (next week) methodology, I see a move down to 1.2750. This will be a test of the upper distribution move. We will likely bounce hard out of this area and it may in fact be a rocket launch upward. If we move below this area next week, it is my opinion that we may head lower into the 1.25's for now. The challenge will be if we head up strongly the first of next week. Do I get out? Anyway, that is my problem and not yours.
NOW THE HARD PART......(and dangerous part I might add)....
Traders Intuition, my instincts, gut...whatever you want to call it.
I can not explain this fundamentally. It is easy to explain it technically but there are a million different views on the technicals on this pair. At any given moment, I will agree with any of them. I know this will sound stupid but I do not care...Something is just not right. WHy does this pair have such favor? Just look at the way it is being traded right now. It is ridulous in my opinion. The real reason that there is such huge volatility is that nobody really knows what to do. What amazes me more than anything is how this pair reflects the worlds hatred of the U.S. Everyone ignores bad data out of Europe. Rarely will the Euro move down more than a blip.
I am going to give this a try but I am not good with fundamentals
- The US has superior GDP growth
- The US unemployment rate is half of the Euro area
- Wages are superior in the US
- Retail sales are really superior in the US
- US Bond yields are superior in the US
- and just for good measure the interest rate differential favors the US even with hikes from ECB. Of course, this does not matter anymore.
- Why are we buying EUROs? I think we just hate the dollar and this is a war built on a house of cards. I think we have a lot of work to do on the dollar, but it is not going to collapse overnight. Do any of you think commodities are going to decline over the next year? Where will the capital flows end up? I do not think they will head to emerging market bonds.
- This jobs report thing is a joke in my opinion. For Gods sake, we need to accept the fact that we have finally developed to the point where we are producing more with technology and less with people. Everyone needs to come to terms with this. It is a paradymn shift that is long overdue. Job creation is a stupid measure in my opinion. Let's evaluate what we do with technology, not how many people it takes to do it. Americans are lazy as hell, but very creative.
- Is there really any meaningful correlation between national debt as a % of GDP and currencies? Take a hard look over history. Take a hard look at Japan.
- Is the US printing dollars too fast? Maybe but one thing is for sure Europe is printing them a heck of a lot faster. I think it is around twice as fast as the US. 8% compared to 4% US.
- We are supposedly falling apart. Are corporate earnings reports reflecting this? I don't know, but cash abounds in many coffers.
- I also think we will begin a large shift in personal savings back to respectable levels. Will this help our current account problem? Is the answer a weaker currency? Who knows.
Lastly and maybe the most important.....
Everyone is doom and gloom the dollar. Front page the WSJ, Time Mag, you name it. A sure sign that we should buy the dollar.
In any case....my gut tells me I do not want to own Euros with the rest of the herd. I learned a long time ago not to ignore my gut regardless of what all the trading jorunals say.
Sorry to ramble on....Good luck next week, month, year, decade.
Until then I guess I will just trade what I see
DRT
