Eur/USD

[downrivertrader]

I've got a hunch the NFP number is going to be big as rumored. I will call it idiot logic. Here's my reasoning....simple.....when it comes to reporting on what is going on with payrolls in this country I would be more inclined to trust ADP to give me insight. They have been cutting checks for a long time in this country and while I was in corporate america their logo was always on my check. Where do the other numbers come from anyway? Think about that one.

ADP report is a sign of things to come for us. May not seem like a big deal now, but just wait.

DRT

 

[Jackjones]

from forexnews.com

The dollar reaction will be determined by a combination of the payrolls figure and the average hourly earnings. A durable dollar rally could only be necessitated by a payrolls figure of at least 250-260K, especially if the average hourly earnings rise by at least 0.3%. A payrolls figure between 200K and 240K could be expected to have a muted dollar reaction, and could even end up negative in the event of earnings growing by less than 0.3%. Any figure below 190K in payrolls is likely to be dollar negative because FX traders are already positioning for an assured ECB rate hike in August and an increasingly likely BoJ move next week, while a Fed rate hike would not be assured after today's jobs report.

 

[aPismoClam]

hi -- joined this thread late. who are the euro scalpers here?

 

[DrawDown]

Quote from aPismoClam:

hi -- joined this thread late. who are the euro scalpers here?

*looks around nervously*

Scalpers...? Whuzzat?

At a venture, for the NFPs, opened a limit order short for 1.2770 pointing down w/ 100-pt TP.

Always wanted to trade one of these NFP spikes.

We got a jittery market so it may just happen.

DD
1.2777

 

[downrivertrader]

Forget I said this.

I am not budging staying short. We are heading down. Maybe not today. But down.

Quote from downrivertrader:

I've got a hunch the NFP number is going to be big as rumored. I will call it idiot logic. Here's my reasoning....simple.....when it comes to reporting on what is going on with payrolls in this country I would be more inclined to trust ADP to give me insight. They have been cutting checks for a long time in this country and while I was in corporate america their logo was always on my check. Where do the other numbers come from anyway? Think about that one.

ADP report is a sign of things to come for us. May not seem like a big deal now, but just wait.

DRT

 

[aPismoClam]

euro traders:

are any of you watching spot? I mean, the <i>real</i> spot market, not the IB or other bucket shop spot.

PM me if you'd rather.

Thx.

 

[polpolik]

hey downriver,

how long do you usually hold on to your positions? Why do you think that Euro is going to decline against the dollar? I'm just curious since I'm playing this opposite side here but using futures. Went long on approx spot price of 1.2825

Won't look to hold if it can't breach 1.29 in a week or so.

 

[aPismoClam]

tough crowd, tough crowd!!

I'm trying to get a handle on what people think their edge is in the currencies. Please don't tell me "charts."

Not selling, just trading.

 

[DrawDown]

Quote from DrawDown:

*looks around nervously*

Scalpers...? Whuzzat?

At a venture, for the NFPs, opened a limit order short for 1.2770 pointing down w/ 100-pt TP.

Always wanted to trade one of these NFP spikes.

We got a jittery market so it may just happen.

DD
1.2777

Came within 2-pips of catching my short limit order before it spiked UP 100-pts! Order closed unfilled.

Pretty sharp numbering, eh?

DD
1.2806

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from Jackjones:

from forexnews.com

The dollar reaction will be determined by a combination of the payrolls figure and the average hourly earnings. A durable dollar rally could only be necessitated by a payrolls figure of at least 250-260K, especially if the average hourly earnings rise by at least 0.3%. A payrolls figure between 200K and 240K could be expected to have a muted dollar reaction, and could even end up negative in the event of earnings growing by less than 0.3%. Any figure below 190K in payrolls is likely to be dollar negative because FX traders are already positioning for an assured ECB rate hike in August and an increasingly likely BoJ move next week, while a Fed rate hike would not be assured after today's jobs report.

Forexnews is the ultimate dollar perma-bear site. I've never seen forex news and analysis so one sided in all my life as I do with them. I'd take their news with a grain of salt.