Eur/USD

Status
Not open for further replies.
I am exiting this for a 17 point loss. I got a good intraday signal in the downdraft today. It is a trade I will always take. Just didn't work out and I will not be watching the market tonight. Still looks like a move up to me.

I may look to get long out of the 2690 area.

Good luck everyone.

DRT

Quote from downrivertrader:

Long at 2738
More...
 
Quote from volatilitypimp:

Do you have any empirical evidence of this?

Does this also mean to say that if ECB raises rates, probability favors a EUR rally?

EDIT: After looking at the past 3 rate increases on Dec. 6, Mar. 8, Jun.15 the daily range on those days were miniscule. It seems the ECB meeting's recently have been non-events. Anyone else care to chime in here?
More...

Do I have evidence of what? You mean do I have Trichet's phone number or something?

I've watched and become comfortable with calling various CB plays for a while now, and am pretty accurate if I do say so myself. Even when the consensus goes against me. This does not, however, mean I cannot be wrong, obviously.

What I think (key word there) will happen this time is that if the ECB pauses (unlikely), then you will see a major sell off in the EUR. Why? Because the market is expecting a hike from all the tough hawkish talk going on from the ECB members. A pause will seriously shock people (including me).

I believe we'll see a hike, and then it will depend on the press conference and how hawkish the commentary arising from that conference ends up being. If more hikes or more aggressive hikes are in the pipeline, expect a EUR rally - a significant one. If the ECB hikes and the talk is neutral or dovish, expect a dollar rally. I think we'll see a hike and neutral commentary once again. Perhaps even marginally dovish.

The last two times the market thought the ECB was going to go far more aggressive. It did not, and therefore there was disappointment. I said that back then, in this very thread, before it happened. Feel free to search a few pages back.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Do I have evidence of what? You mean do I have Trichet's phone number or something?

I've watched and become comfortable with calling various CB plays for a while now, and am pretty accurate if I do say so myself. Even when the consensus goes against me. This does not, however, mean I cannot be wrong, obviously.

What I think (key word there) will happen this time is that if the ECB pauses (unlikely), then you will see a major sell off in the EUR. Why? Because the market is expecting a hike from all the tough hawkish talk going on from the ECB members. A pause will seriously shock people (including me).

I believe we'll see a hike, and then it will depend on the press conference and how hawkish the commentary arising from that conference ends up being. If more hikes or more aggressive hikes are in the pipeline, expect a EUR rally - a significant one. If the ECB hikes and the talk is neutral or dovish, expect a dollar rally. I think we'll see a hike and neutral commentary once again. Perhaps even marginally dovish.

The last two times the market thought the ECB was going to go far more aggressive. It did not, and therefore there was disappointment. I said that back then, in this very thread, before it happened. Feel free to search a few pages back.
More...

I hope my post didn't come off critical or judgemental, I'm just trying to understand your reasoning. I'm quite new to the Forex market, so I'm just trying to get a feel for it. I usually trade gamma, but I might take a small spec EUR long into the meeting tomorrow. I'm a bit perplexed that the last 3 meetings would not cause a more trendy-day in this pair.
 
No no...it's I who apologize if I appeared defensive. I just didn't know what you meant by "evidence". :)

Lots of times, CB meetings are a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of deal.
 
See, case and point of me being wrong.

They left rates on hold and stayed with "tough talk". The tough talk sent up the Euro until Trichet would not state that there were more hikes in the pipeline.

I'm rather surprised there's not more of a down move, but it might just come tomorrow, or this afternoon.
 
I'm very surprised about euro bullishness when the fact is that ECB is not bullish. They've constantly and again shown that they're only talking tough. There's no reason why that hot air should sink into the markets as it has. Most probably they will only rise total of 0.5% this year and if they just can justify it will stick with a single 0.25% increase.

They don't want euro to rise over 1.30 under any circumstances but there seem to be some players out there who are hell bent on taking the eurusd up.

Of late news releases, any eurusd downmove seems to come only after the dollar bear has gone home. That's after Europe market hours.

There was a candid statement about a "Zurich based buying program" buying eurusd up 100 pips on friday close probably on Jan 13th when the trend was about to turn back down due to news and sentiment. And from then on, up we went. It'd be very difficult to oppose someone being able to toss the market at will like that.
 
Never ceases to amaze me. There is definitely something more to it always. Nobody even mentions the wonderfully horrible German data this morning. Just keeps ignoring it always. You can't trade it short term with any logic. Just trade what you see.

I see a return to lower levels in the big picture, but really doesn't matter.

DRT
 
Well, me thinketh the world is frozen over about this NK deal.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2006-07/06/content_634722.htm

The nations are split down the middle, with Russia, NK and China taking one side (of course, you can stack in Iran, Syria and the Gaza Strip ;-)) and the rest of the world taking the other.

Oil's going up.

EUR/USD is jammed.

Until something crazy(ier) happens ... welcome to the Flat Zone.

Good trading, go fishing, drink beer,

DD
1.2777

<img src=http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2006-07/06/xin_13070305125723107921.jpg>
crack in the world
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top