Eur/USD

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Oh, I'm completely with you that - compared to the US, the EZ's financials are shockingly poor. But that never mattered to the market before.
 
I think 1.20 may be right on. Likely way beyond this level.


Quote from 2cents:

1.20 a complete exaggeration of course... unless oil drops in lockstep and even then, that wld prob drive US Trade Balance to south of -$70bio, therefore bringing the $ back in line on deficit type concerns alone...

re pausing however, whilst i agree a pause is the logical step post-june hike, don't forget that 1) a pause at 5.25% risk-free rate (while EUR 'may' raise by an extra 25bps within the next few months) is not the same as a pause at 4% level, 2) the physionomy of the mkt is very different from 2 days ago, now that tons of retail accts have been burned to death...

other than just the carry trade, what shld boost the $ imo is the simple fact that i wld expect better returns on US domestic assets in general than on any equivalent european asset classes... just a view (from a european passport holder...)
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I was wondering how everyone is positioned right now? Long, Short or Flat and waiting for confirmation. If you care to say that is. I don't think we have very many who visit here which really surprises me. Is it me, or does ET have a lack of currency traders?

If you follow this thread, you may recall I was fortunate to catch the turn near the top at 2925. I stayed short until 2804 and got out. I have had a couple short term trades since then, but I regret not having the fortitude to stay short. Once the market went below 2750, I have waited for a good place to get long.

My plan has been to get long around 2480, but opportunity has rocketed away so far. I have been through a lot of mental torture on this one and I have decided to enter short at 2638. Every thing says get long to me, but it just doesn't feel right and I just can not for the life of me figure out why I would want to own Euros.

So.....I have loaded the boat and am short at 2638. I am expecting to battle for this one. Today was a good example. I see a lot of downside and I realize you all may think I am blind. One of the main drivers for me is my call on the USDJPY. I am long this pair. I think most expect the Yen to appreciate and for us to have a false break out try to fill the gap up top. I think we are going to a minimum of 120 and beyond and I have a full postion long on this pair also.

Just rambling, what is everyone else doing.

DRT
 
Is it me, or does ET have a lack of currency traders?
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Nah. ET is full of currency traders who want the magic system and plan on retiring in a few years with starting stakes of a few thousand dollars :).

As for me, I am flat at the moment. EUR/USD did temporarily break a major support point but it quickly bounced back (for a tiny profit before trailing stop was hit). I am looking to play a break of 1.2600 with tight stops and a quick trigger finger. I do notice some nice looking divergences in momentum and prices on the small timeframes (M5, M15).
 
Short from resistance since earlier today... hasn't moved.

I'm considering opening a real account at either FXDD or InterbankFX. Should be interesting.
 

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I got up (or is it could not sleep) to watch the European action today. Something that I guess I will never understand.....

The Eurozone Industrial Production numbers came out at 5:00 AM this morning. They were dismal and completely out of line with forecast. The price action did not even move. No reaction. In fact, if anything the Euro kept moving up. Does anyone know why the Euro data has very little effect on prices many times? If this had happened in the US we would have had severe price movement. I guess I am missing something and the Eurozone is in another industrial revolution.

This is why I hate owning Euros.


8 EUR/USD: EZ IP Slump Fails To Dent Rally] London, June 16. Eurozone
Industrial Production slumped in April by 0.6% but the thus far the dismal
easing has failed to dent the morning EUR rally. The contraction totally
reverses the previous +0.6% reading as all sub-sectors fell. The yearly data was
also below expectations as the +1.9% fell well below the +3.2% consensus
forecast.
 
This is because EU data matters approximately 1/5th as much as US data when it comes to USD pairs. This has always been the case.

People love to hate the USD.
 
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