Eur/USD

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My methodology tells me that more resolution of value needs to occur above where we are trading now (2592) before we will move down. I know this is not much and I am sorry I can not explain it better.

There is a balance point that exists at 2750. This is where value exists for all. I just think we will work back toward it, before we head down.

Common sense always works. Ask yourself, what really changed last week??? Did it warrant such a sudden shift in sentiment. Maybe, but I think we need to retest the idea first. Lots of data this week, it will likely be an ugly time so be careful with your trades.

DRT

Quote from 4XIS4U:

downrivertrader -- can you expand on the reasons for the 1.2777 please? tkx.
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Actually, yes, it did warrant a shift in sentiment. All you have to do is look at Fed Futures last week versus this one. Last week we were well below 50% of a hike end of June. Now, it's 86%.

Perception of the Fed changed massively. Don't ask me why, though. I've been saying the Fed will hike end of June for...oh about a month and a half now.
 
Disagree. The reaction is not warranted. What did he really say that we did not know....??? That he is concerned about inflation. Now that's a revelation. Problem is the market got ahead of itself.
 
Also, don't forget...

Until the move down that everyone is waiting for actually occurs, then we are still in a range bound market. This is eveidenced by CB plays in the last couple days.
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

Disagree. The reaction is not warranted. What did he really say that we did not know....??? That he is concerned about inflation. Now that's a revelation. Problem is the market got ahead of itself.
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What did who say? Ben?

Lot of Fed speakers last week stressed that inflation was above their comfort zone. Ben, himself, stressed it. Regardless of whether you, personally, think it's warranted, the market got shocked back into thinking a hike was coming AND the ECB was less hawkish than the market expected.

Therefore, the decline occured. Warranted is an opinion.
 
Here's one that presents an interesting view. Stetched a 2 SD regression channel from the 2000 lows to the 2004 high and guess where we are sitting. We have pulled back in the channel and are testing the bottom. Now this looks like a long to me, but who knows.

Sorry for the size, but it is a big one.

DRT
 

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Interesting, although that regression channel since the introduction of the Euro doesn't look right to me. It's got the correct angle, but the regression line seems to be drawn about 10 handles too high. If so, we are not testing the lower 2 SD band yet. (Not that I think it would in any way prevent the resumption of the uptrend you anticipate.)
 
The median line extends from October 26, 2000 to Dec 31, 2004. It does not start with the introduction of the Euro, rather the high and low. Why don't you post a similar chart. I am not sure what is wrong but it looks correct to me on this end.

DRT

Quote from late apex:

Interesting, although that regression channel since the introduction of the Euro doesn't look right to me. It's got the correct angle, but the regression line seems to be drawn about 10 handles too high. If so, we are not testing the lower 2 SD band yet. (Not that I think it would in any way prevent the resumption of the uptrend you anticipate.)
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Falling knife, gentlemen. Wait for the bottom, then go long. So you miss a few pips calling the bottom. Big deal. They'll be plenty of pips on the next upswing.
 
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