Eur/USD

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Yet another nice looking downmove with the rate stopping its decline at the Support level outlined in the weekly report.

Went short at the break of the 100EMA on the H4 as I had noted before (entry: 1.2789, initial stop: 1.2825), trailed stops as it went down and was taken out at 1.2661 for 128 pips).

DRT> Looks like you did well holding those shorts.
 
Interesting.........

Chart on the 4 hour timeframe. A huge move down after breaking the 200 MA.

Question is, will the price rebound and move back up to bounce off the 200 MA, or will it break this support area and just drop some more?
 

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Looks like COT reports show further bearish bias in the EURUSD rate with the US Index staying about constant. Commercials increased their bearish EURUSD bets while the specs increased their bets on bullish EURUSD bets.

Key reports to look out for would be CPI and PPI. Bernanke, I believe, will be running an exclusively data driven Fed with rates moving up and down whenever the data indicates it (unlike Greenspan who increased rates gradually etc). Think early-mid 1990s when rates were increased suddenly.

If anyone is interested weekly report is here: http://www.aeroscapital.com/june1106.pdf

Good trading to all.
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

I still see a move up to 1.2777 before we head down.
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downrivertrader -- can you expand on the reasons for the 1.2777 please? tkx.
 
4XIS4U - here's one way to look at it. Create a 60 min close-only line chart for the pair, draw ya a horizontal line at the 2775 area, and note all the price hits - in the spirit of yer 'ole S&R. Also, one can easily see where the breakdown hit the open waters.

I'm sure DRT's reasoning is much more sophisticated, but sometimes KISS can show ya things too.
 
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