I found the price action yesterday and particularly today to be interesting. All the movement came in one large move up within one hourly candle and I think the majority of it came in about 20 minutes. There was no continuation of the move yesterday or today. Volume on the CME for FX was above average, but not particularly high for such an "apparent" USD bearish report. I realize the move up was large, but generally the other time frame buyers would tend to react. One thing is for sure, price held the high level, built value and did not move down. About 55% of the days volume occurred near the top today.
This leads me to believe that buyers are already in to a high degree. Maybe good traders are beginning to sell this leg up. This is always the first sign that a change is near. Obviously we could use a correction but "when" is the key question. I think value is way out of whack at this point and I suspect smart traders will be patient and wait for a better entry in the 2525 -2545 area for instance.
I am short as stated above for a variety of reasons, and I will get out quickly if necessary as I think there is plenty of emotional gas left in this move that will send me running for cover. It seems like the consensus view has written off the dollar and that is a sure sign of a good time to exit.
The dollar obviously has some structural issues, but this is not a revelation in my opinion. I think rate hikes are still forthcoming. I am surprised everyone has discounted this so heavily.
I just wanted to bring it up. At least, this is what I observed.
I am sure there are lots of other valid opinions as to why we should head on up and I welcome the views.
Where has everyone gone? Is everyone counting their riches? I had a decent month in May, but it was brutal. I have been through every emotion known to traderdom lately.
Good trading everyone.
DRT
