Eur/USD

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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I will have no choice here in 5 minutes when the hourly bar finishes to do anything but go short. Classic bearish MACD Histogram divergence. EDIT--unless the last 5 minutes negates it.
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It did slightly negate the Histogram divergence, but the RSI bearish divergence is intact. I have shorted the June euro futures at 1.2768
 
And here is why I think the market is going to get a rude wakeup call:

"Boston, May 8. With another 25 bps rate hike a sure bet Wednesday, the Fed continues to act on the inflation threat. Risks of commodity and wage inflation outweigh those of a softening economy so a tighter policy stance is appropriate. Apart from weak payroll growth, economic data at the start of the second quarter have been strong. We place low odds of a 50 bps rate hike on May 10 and similarly low probability that the
Fed pauses in June. While a 5% nominal funds rate today is consistent with real Fed funds (deflated by the core PCE price index) near 2.5% (i.e., above supposed neutrality), domestic and global demand conditions warrant further absorption of the capital glut. The faster foreign central banks raise their rates, the sooner the Fed can stop raising its. That's not apt to happen until the Fed moves to 5.50% at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting. -- Jeoff Hall"
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

And here is why I think the market is going to get a rude wakeup call:

"Boston, May 8. With another 25 bps rate hike a sure bet Wednesday, the Fed continues to act on the inflation threat. Risks of commodity and wage inflation outweigh those of a softening economy so a tighter policy stance is appropriate. Apart from weak payroll growth, economic data at the start of the second quarter have been strong. We place low odds of a 50 bps rate hike on May 10 and similarly low probability that the
Fed pauses in June. While a 5% nominal funds rate today is consistent with real Fed funds (deflated by the core PCE price index) near 2.5% (i.e., above supposed neutrality), domestic and global demand conditions warrant further absorption of the capital glut. The faster foreign central banks raise their rates, the sooner the Fed can stop raising its. That's not apt to happen until the Fed moves to 5.50% at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting. -- Jeoff Hall"
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I generally disregard news.

hourly charts point down, that's why I am short. It's tenuous on the daily chart--it hasn't shown reversal yet, so I am more careful with this short at the moment.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

The faster foreign central banks raise their rates, the sooner the Fed can stop raising its. That's not apt to happen until the Fed moves to 5.50% at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting. -- Jeoff Hall"
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5.50% in June? Surely he meant to say 5.25%. Assuming a raise to 5% on Wednesday, a 50 bp raise next month is considered extremely unlikely, as of now.

Incidentally, the last time the Fed moved by 50 bp was in Nov. 2002 (down) and May 2000 (up). Nov. 1994 must have been interesting, too...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
 
Quote from late apex:

5.50% in June? Surely he meant to say 5.25%. Assuming a raise to 5% on Wednesday, a 50 bp raise next month is considered extremely unlikely, as of now.

Incidentally, the last time the Fed moved by 50 bp was in Nov. 2002 (down) and May 2000 (up). Nov. 1994 must have been interesting, too...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
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He meant 5.25. Frequent typos on IFR lately.
 
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