I think EUR/USD is on the move up now...Stop was taken out!
-Kastro
-Kastro
Eur/USD
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I agree, as I said yesterday 1.2415 is the natural channel top target. However, given the doveishness of the Fed minutes I expected this cross to trade a lot higher, so it suggests the market is already very long, so a retracement may occur, before the trend is resumed. Buy sub 1.23 if you can.
I still laugh at the "dovishness" of the Fed.
First, the fed funds rate will easily be 5.0% by the end of next month. What's the EU rate?
Second, future Fed hikes will be data dependant, and they've explicitly stated that job and industrial data is at capacity and very strong.
Third, the ECB has (indirectly) stated that it does not want to see a repeat of December 2004, when the Euro took off like a rocket because it doesn't reflect fundamentals, AND it will be an EU "pain threshold" right around 1.25.
Economically and politically, the EU is half in the bag. GDP growth is not on par with the US, and will not likely reach those levels any time soon due to structural imbalances - imbalances that cannot even be corrected because every time there's a new law to help them, France goes into chaos, or German worker unions walkout.
I could see people buying Aussie against the dollar. Or even Loonie. Both of those comdols should be rocketing in the face of high oil, gold, and copper, etc. But the Euro? Haha...this is too much.
You know why the Euro takes off? Because it's the ANTI dollar. It's the most logical point to go to when you hate the dollar, which many people do. Buy Yen. The JPY cash rate is set to launch. But Euro?
I shake my head and wonder who the hell is playing what.
First, the fed funds rate will easily be 5.0% by the end of next month. What's the EU rate?
Second, future Fed hikes will be data dependant, and they've explicitly stated that job and industrial data is at capacity and very strong.
Third, the ECB has (indirectly) stated that it does not want to see a repeat of December 2004, when the Euro took off like a rocket because it doesn't reflect fundamentals, AND it will be an EU "pain threshold" right around 1.25.
Economically and politically, the EU is half in the bag. GDP growth is not on par with the US, and will not likely reach those levels any time soon due to structural imbalances - imbalances that cannot even be corrected because every time there's a new law to help them, France goes into chaos, or German worker unions walkout.
I could see people buying Aussie against the dollar. Or even Loonie. Both of those comdols should be rocketing in the face of high oil, gold, and copper, etc. But the Euro? Haha...this is too much.
You know why the Euro takes off? Because it's the ANTI dollar. It's the most logical point to go to when you hate the dollar, which many people do. Buy Yen. The JPY cash rate is set to launch. But Euro?
I shake my head and wonder who the hell is playing what.
Good post.
It's also worth noting when reading through the March FOMC minutes the general assumption among the members that energy prices had stabilized (this was, of course, in March). Now, a few weeks later, we're hitting new highs with oil prices -- a factor the FOMC will undoubtedly take into account when weighing inflation risks at the May meeting and beyond.
So I agree that it's far too soon to write off Fed tightening after May.
We'll no doubt see a correction in the EUR rather soon as the market herd mentality begins to realize that. Right now, it's all model/momentum funds pushing as far as possible, as always.
Look at the silver rally. How insane is that? RSI is like 92? LOL! I love it. I went long silver spot at 12. But I keep moving up my stop loss because I do not expect this to continue in it's madness - but every day I wake up and find that it does, and I shake my head in wonder.
Strange times are among us, friends. Strange times indeed.
Look at the silver rally. How insane is that? RSI is like 92? LOL! I love it. I went long silver spot at 12. But I keep moving up my stop loss because I do not expect this to continue in it's madness - but every day I wake up and find that it does, and I shake my head in wonder.
Strange times are among us, friends. Strange times indeed.
Well, after inching up for hours, Euro just broke the high for the year, at the normally dead time of 4:50 pm EST... Cable and swissy also strong, but, of course, not at new YTD high / low yet.
Someone say "strange times indeed"?
Everybody's talking and no one says a word
Everybody's making love and no one really cares
There's Nazis in the bathroom just below the stairs
There's always something happening and nothin' going on
There's always something cooking and nothing in the pot
They're starving back in China, so finish what you got
{Refrain}
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Strange days indeed, strange days indeed
Everybody's runnin' and no one makes a move
Well everybody's a winner and nothing left to lose
There's a little yellow idol to the north of Katmandu
Everybody's flying and no one leaves the ground
Well everybody's crying and no one makes a sound
There's a place for us in movies, you just gotta lay around
{Refrain}
... most peculiar mama
Everybody's smoking and no one's getting high
Everybody's flying and never touch the sky
There's UFO's over in New York and I ain't too surprised
{Refrain}
... most peculiar mama, whoa
Someone say "strange times indeed"?
Everybody's talking and no one says a word
Everybody's making love and no one really cares
There's Nazis in the bathroom just below the stairs
There's always something happening and nothin' going on
There's always something cooking and nothing in the pot
They're starving back in China, so finish what you got
{Refrain}
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Strange days indeed, strange days indeed
Everybody's runnin' and no one makes a move
Well everybody's a winner and nothing left to lose
There's a little yellow idol to the north of Katmandu
Everybody's flying and no one leaves the ground
Well everybody's crying and no one makes a sound
There's a place for us in movies, you just gotta lay around
{Refrain}
... most peculiar mama
Everybody's smoking and no one's getting high
Everybody's flying and never touch the sky
There's UFO's over in New York and I ain't too surprised
{Refrain}
... most peculiar mama, whoa
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