Eur/USD

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Will be keeping an eye on this today.
The ten year is near 5%. The market has priced in two more rate increases. The trade data was better than expected.
All should be dollar positive.
However, this cross just doesnt seem to be able to hold lower levels. If it can hold 1.2070 post data, I'm going long.
 
Looks like it might be facing resitance from the lower daily channel line in blue, a daily fib level and the hourly channel which has formed.
 

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If it can hold today above yesterdays lows, I fancy this going forwards. At the moment, its just ironical that despite a lot of positive news flow for the dollar (esp 10 year yield breaking 5% today) it cannot make further gains against the euro, the yen, the franc or the pound.
 
Quote from YeahIknow:

If it can hold today above yesterdays lows, I fancy this going forwards. At the moment, its just ironical that despite a lot of positive news flow for the dollar (esp 10 year yield breaking 5% today) it cannot make further gains against the euro, the yen, the franc or the pound.
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What's the rush? EUR was above 1.23 just last week.

My hunch is neither longs nor shorts make much headway today.
 
Seriously. The EUR tends to move slower to the downside than it does spiking up. This is in good part because of the ongoing diversification issue.

But EUR is poised to drop off the 1.2080 cliff. I have been thinking about going long here, since I tend to trade longer term than many of you. But the rate outlook continues to favor the dollar. That will soon change, though.

Another few weeks is my guess. Then we shall see some REAL Euro buying.
 
I wonder how much leverage the pit players at the CME have in pushing this market in the short term, especially in thin holiday trading. I mean, can they spend the whole session punishing some poor fool who shorted the low tick just to squeeze him out by the close?
 
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