Eur/USD
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What move? The sell off as Snow said NFP numbers will be good? I don't know how he knows this since numbers aren't even compiled until tomorrow evening, at which time a copy is given only to the President and the Fed Chairman.
Just know that there are a ton of offers in the 1.23 area - from the mid-east, from europe and asia.
Unless something amazing is released before NFP, don't expect to see a sustained break of 1.23.
Just know that there are a ton of offers in the 1.23 area - from the mid-east, from europe and asia.
Unless something amazing is released before NFP, don't expect to see a sustained break of 1.23.
Consensus is usually wrong. How often are economists right on economic numbers at important times?
Not the best analogy. Economic numbers are calculated, based on aggregation of often subjective, inherently flawed, decentralized data; conceivably fall over a fairly wide range (typically with dozens of potential values); and frequently revised quietly but substantially at the next release... which is pretty funny / interesting in itself, given all the hoopla.
By contrast, benchmark interest rate decisions by central banks are usually binary, yes / no decisions and have none of the above 3 attributes. Consensus is almost always correct on those decisions, with rare surprises over the years.
ECB leaves rates unchanged Damn.
You win Ivanovich
You win Ivanovich
ECB's Trichet Says Market Rate Outlook May Not Reflect Stance
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said investors' expectations for an increase in interest rates next month don't reflect the bank's current monetary stance.
``The present high probability which is given for an increase of rates in our next meeting does not correspond to the present sentiment of the governing council,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB kept its benchmark rate at 2.5 percent.
Economists and investors had revised their ECB rate forecasts as evidence mounted that growth in the 12 euro nations was gaining momentum, fueling demand for loans and giving companies scope to raise prices. Manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in more than five years in March, German executives were the most optimistic since 1991 and inflation exceeded the ECB's ceiling for a 14th month.
Trichet didn't say the ECB needs to show ``vigilance'' against inflation in his opening statement, a word he has used to describe the ECB's stance at the press conferences preceding the March and December rate increases.
The euro declined. Europe's single currency, which earlier climbed to a seven-month high of $1.2332, was worth $1.2243 at 2:49 p.m. in Frankfurt.
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said investors' expectations for an increase in interest rates next month don't reflect the bank's current monetary stance.
``The present high probability which is given for an increase of rates in our next meeting does not correspond to the present sentiment of the governing council,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB kept its benchmark rate at 2.5 percent.
Economists and investors had revised their ECB rate forecasts as evidence mounted that growth in the 12 euro nations was gaining momentum, fueling demand for loans and giving companies scope to raise prices. Manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in more than five years in March, German executives were the most optimistic since 1991 and inflation exceeded the ECB's ceiling for a 14th month.
Trichet didn't say the ECB needs to show ``vigilance'' against inflation in his opening statement, a word he has used to describe the ECB's stance at the press conferences preceding the March and December rate increases.
The euro declined. Europe's single currency, which earlier climbed to a seven-month high of $1.2332, was worth $1.2243 at 2:49 p.m. in Frankfurt.
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