EUR/USD

[Volume Dynamics]

Quote from clambill:

Do you find the EUR/JPY chaotic compared to the EUR/USD? I tried numerous methods on the EUR/JPY and just found it difficult. Of course, I did alter my method significantly lately but still, I find the EUR/USD has smoother movements.

Well, I find that different crosses lead at different times...

Today if you followed the yen, you would have seen the effects on not just the other currencies but also equities, gold and commodities...

One thing of interest however beyond the yen is the action in the Swiss Franc. Check out the action against the Euro...

After a deluge of volume to the downside, it was quietly gapped up and is holding a sideways move against the Euro...

 

[Masterchanger]

Still short from 1.3532

switching from 4 hour chart to daily chart to manage this trade. Looking at hold till first weekly support around 1.24 ish

Weekly support at 1.2400 and then 1.1580

 

[uexkuell]

Quote from k_bishop:
I think EURUSD will continue to go down today possibly going back to the 1.3110 support level.

Unfortunately there are many people out there that "think" the same way.

Therefore, that will not happen (yet).
Long for the next hours.
Expect pain for the people that are short.

 

[Went Fishing]

That's what makes a market.. two opinions.
This thread appears to need a little life... I'll offer a third,

With German Un Emp @ 7:55 GMT
Consumer Confi @ 9:00 GMT
US Jobless @ 12:30 GMT

And "God knows what" out of Greece @ anytime GMT !!!

I also "think" the EUR should be in play again today.... I trade it intraday with T/A .... so I don't create a bias ..... I just do what my system tells me..... some days I'm long for awhile then after a news release (or bombshell) I might be short for awhile.

For ENTERTAINMENT purposes... I'll stick my neck out and say the Euro will touch 1.3300 before it falls to 1.3000

I'm not saying this is going to happen TODAY .... just that's how I "foresee" the future..... Barring any "over the top" news, like Disney buying Greece for $150 billion USD.

Good Trading
<*)))><

 

[uexkuell]

Quote from uexkuell:
Expect pain for the people that are short.

If yesterdays moves did hurt expect worse things for the next days (=more up-moves).

EUR may even come up to 1.3350 level in order to shake people out.

Longer range the downward has not yet come to a halt.

 

[huckabilly]

Nice call on bounce.

Unfortunately I'm short, though still in the money for the time being. I am expecting the med. term downward trend to continue. What are your thoughts as to rational for bounce since clearly we are in downward trend in Eur/USD.

 

[uexkuell]

Reason for bounce is the reason for most of the moves anyway:

Big guys are living on watching where the small guys have their positions and causing them pain (hit their stop losses).

Only when the small guys are shaken out of their shorts sufficiently we can move on where we want to go (south).

 

[huckabilly]

So, let's say that the recent move in Eur/Usd is the result of stop hunting, what signals would you use to enter and exit your trade?

If this is really what you’re trading on then both technical and fundamental analysis would be working against you, since the big guy would have access to this information too and would therefore blow you out of the water anyway.

If anyone trades "stop hunters", please enlighten me as to your strategy and what data you are using. Personally, I do believe that there is a significant amount of stop hunting in forex. However, I don't know how you would trade it. For this reason, I try to stay out when markets are thin.

 

[RockyRacoon]

Quote from huckabilly:

So, let's say that the recent move in Eur/Usd is the result of stop hunting, what signals would you use to enter and exit your trade?

If this is really what you’re trading on then both technical and fundamental analysis would be working against you, since the big guy would have access to this information too and would therefore blow you out of the water anyway.

If anyone trades "stop hunters", please enlighten me as to your strategy and what data you are using. Personally, I do believe that there is a significant amount of stop hunting in forex. However, I don't know how you would trade it. For this reason, I try to stay out when markets are thin.

I don't think it's entirely the result of stop hunting, but since everyone and their broker is short the pair, it does make sense that a lot of folks cover (buy) their positions before heading into the weekend - which will no doubt trigger stop losses - especially those "late to the party" shorts.

It also makes sense that institutions will do what they can to run it up higher so as to get a better short entry. I doubt institutions actually bought the lows because if they did, seems like the spike would be a whole lot higher.

Path of least resistance is still down.

 

[HFT_Board]

If there is anyone in the world that is still long on the euro please PM me becuase I have a bridge that I want to sell you. lol over 300 pips to the down side since Monday.