19:44 GMT Aug 12th] EUR/USD reached 1.2485, the 38.2% retracement of the
1.3480/1.1870 decline before stopping on a dime in London this morning. The buck
inexplicably rallied strongly despite worse than expected US trade data with
some blaming a massive trade error by a high profile hedge fund as well as
reports of system problems at EBS helping exacerbate an illiquid situation.
EUR/USD tumbled to 1.2385 from 1.2465 after the news before rebounding to 1.2445
late in the day. The failure to overcome 1.2485 resistance despite poor data and
falling US rates has the EUR bulls somewhat on edge.
Commodities continued their breathtaking rally today with the CRB setting a new
record high, as did oil. The oil rally spurred jitters that the Fed may be
closer to the end of its tightening cycle than anyone had figured just days ago.
The contractionary impact of $67 oil is too much to ignore. It will also
continue to bloat the US trade deficit keeping current account jitters top of
mind. TIC data on Monday will take on added import as a result. 1.2485/1.2500 is
crucial for the bulls with a shakeout seen if they are not overcome soon. --
1.3480/1.1870 decline before stopping on a dime in London this morning. The buck
inexplicably rallied strongly despite worse than expected US trade data with
some blaming a massive trade error by a high profile hedge fund as well as
reports of system problems at EBS helping exacerbate an illiquid situation.
EUR/USD tumbled to 1.2385 from 1.2465 after the news before rebounding to 1.2445
late in the day. The failure to overcome 1.2485 resistance despite poor data and
falling US rates has the EUR bulls somewhat on edge.
Commodities continued their breathtaking rally today with the CRB setting a new
record high, as did oil. The oil rally spurred jitters that the Fed may be
closer to the end of its tightening cycle than anyone had figured just days ago.
The contractionary impact of $67 oil is too much to ignore. It will also
continue to bloat the US trade deficit keeping current account jitters top of
mind. TIC data on Monday will take on added import as a result. 1.2485/1.2500 is
crucial for the bulls with a shakeout seen if they are not overcome soon. --
But what does that make us think about?