EUR/USD going higher next week?

S

sKaLpZ

EUR/USD slammed the ground at 1.1869 in July followed by a slow but sustained climb where it peaked just over 1.2400 this week.

Is EUR/USD going higher next week?

I think so. what do you think?

fxskalper

current = 1.2359
 
If it does, it is only to fufill a technical requirement. The fed will be raising again, and their language isn't likely to change - which means rates for the US will continue to be going up for the foreseeable future. End of story.

The only thing that will cause the EUR to appreciate is continued middle east reserve buying. Without that support, look for erosion.

That is my humble opinion.

-Ivan
 
Quote from mtzianos:

IMO nominal interest rates are not the major factor driving currency rates.

I think the counter-trend rally of USD has basically finished and the secular down trend will re-emerge.

The question to how the exchange rates will behave, is basically to ask how far the other countries are going to go in destroying the value of their currencies (and their citizen's savings, i.e. fruit of past labour) vs anything tangible.

I.e. in competitive devaluations to maintain certain value vs the dollar.

E.g. sofar Japan has the worst record of all in destroying the value of their citizen's savings.
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would this then mean to buy/hold yen against the dollar for future appreciation?

or just the opposite?
 
Go ahead and buy yen against dollar, waiting for this to happen. And do me a favor, take out a loan for the interest you'll lose during that time frame.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Go ahead and buy yen against dollar, waiting for this to happen. And do me a favor, take out a loan for the interest you'll lose during that time frame.
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You're sure right about the interest thing.

My short USD/JPY position has been bleeding weekly.

However, the concept of gaining 500, 600, 800, or 900 points far outweighs interest I'm having to pay. I can't say that for other interest-zapping pairs.

The thing about dollar/yen, I've found, is that it can drop from 111s to 102s in a few weeks.
 
Sorry, not going to happen until at least after first week of September. And even then, you'll not see a drop of that magnitude right away. It'll happen, but not until you've bled 500 pips. Go ahead, ask me why.
 
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