Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd and Gold trading
- Thread starter cvds16
- Start date
In Commodities I day trade and do very long term trades, your swing most likely would not be anything like trades where I add on to existing long term model as in most trending systems, I am usually going counter to most of them as I use Bollinger Bands for entry and always hedged in the beginning. I use nine year monthly charts and use a certain percentage of the extremes before I can start taking trades, I need Gold to get down to 904 or lower to start taking longs, so I am still in short positions and have taken my fair share of losses in futures on the shorts but the hedges have saved my account. I have automated systems for day trading in Gold and over 40 instruments of looking for various patterns of chart and indicators.
I been short since triple highs in weeklies last December in US Dollar, so now I can only take deep retracements to add on. And short ES from the highs and took profit on half position of 80 points. When price made Quad lows, I hedged my short profits buy doing Debit Call spreads using 2 week option durations, so I been adding every one week to Debit Call spreads as ES and other Indexes have been going up and at the lows did Put credit spreads. Most likely I will get stopped out of the ES futures at some point and when it gets higher, I will resume looking for tops.
Most would have taken profits on lows, but I would never been able to stay in huge trades if I took this approach.
Where I use to spend much of my time developing different ways to profit in day trading, have spent this time more in learning about options to make profits just on the options themselves and finding imaginative ways to use options of long term futures which has changed bottom line much more for long term trading. For most long term traders, one out of three years normally is great trading and other two if lucky is treading water, but now I have found good ways to add to my initial positions and ways to hedge open profits. But as I have done for years is hedge opening positions and now hedge profits when system shows reversal is do and also do credit spreads.
Attachments
I spend all weekend (hours and hours) looking at intraday eurusd charts in many ways. First I tried a few exotic timeframes like the 20 minute. Tried to combine that with inside bar breakouts. Then tried to define my goals better. Went totally mutli-timeframe: hourly, 30M, 20M,15M,10M,5M and 3M. But this started to drive me insane having to invent more and more rules when I added the stochastic indicator to try to make better meaning of this. Backtesting this by hand was a nightmare.
In the end things got better again when I reduced my charts to a combo of the 5M and 3M intraday. Afterwards did some research on how to move my stop and what would be my best goal (I use a rolling month for this). As it stands now I will be trading this method for the foreseeable future and trying to refine it. Seems stuff I tried to learn finally clicked in my mind, with some ideas from other people that I took further and refined to my own liking.
Backtesting this over the last month gave me an optimal goal of 14.8 pips (= 16 - 1.2 for the spread) with a stop of 10 when I move my stop to be at +8. I seem to have finally found what I have been looking for for years: a system with a very high hitrate (a guestimate of over 80%, about 15% and about 5% losers if executed as it should. This last thing might be another problem since I have about 9 rules so I got to watch my charts like a hawk.
I will give a review at the end of the day. At this moment I am long eur/usd @ 1.1241 so my stop is at breakeven allready.
In the end things got better again when I reduced my charts to a combo of the 5M and 3M intraday. Afterwards did some research on how to move my stop and what would be my best goal (I use a rolling month for this). As it stands now I will be trading this method for the foreseeable future and trying to refine it. Seems stuff I tried to learn finally clicked in my mind, with some ideas from other people that I took further and refined to my own liking.
Backtesting this over the last month gave me an optimal goal of 14.8 pips (= 16 - 1.2 for the spread) with a stop of 10 when I move my stop to be at +8. I seem to have finally found what I have been looking for for years: a system with a very high hitrate (a guestimate of over 80%, about 15% and about 5% losers if executed as it should. This last thing might be another problem since I have about 9 rules so I got to watch my charts like a hawk.
I will give a review at the end of the day. At this moment I am long eur/usd @ 1.1241 so my stop is at breakeven allready.
Yeah, brings back memories of exactly what you are doing when I was in my youth, as you get older, you start dropping rules and multiple timeframes for day trading. I study and think "Do huge traders do exotic"? most likely they are too tired to do that, I am just trying to coattail huge traders. I use to use checklist with clear plastic sheet in front of it and use water marker so I could wash checks off when done with trade, after awhile you remember rules like breathing.
Congrats getting towards your goals, much less frustrating when you get to where you want to go.
I had to stay awake today and not home, so to pass the time, traded ES and QEC pretty much all day. For those who have problems of WHEN to draw trend lines, you can use LOSC indicator and if Blue line crossed red line and in direction of where you want the trade to go confirms when to have price crossing trend line. But 3 bar time stop never changes regardless of timeframe.
Just patterns, patterns on indicator, patterns on price, trendline patterns.
Just patterns, patterns on indicator, patterns on price, trendline patterns.
