EUR/USD Analysis
- Thread starter TraderGreg
- Start date
Ok couldn't sleep and planning to trade in the morning so here I am.
Straight to it...
Monthly: not surprising that we closed in an inside bar. As I have in the past, I take nothing from this chart besides the resistance at 1.35
Weekly: possible little 3br heading toward confirming my dragon? I think it's possible, but I'm looking closely at what my daily is saying too. Also: notice the different trendline I had before - I confirmed the pattern too early! I try not to base my analyses much on TLs because of that.
Daily: I try to not take Mondays too seriously, but there was a nice little inside bar break there. If a yesterday's high is taken, I might become more bullish. Otherwise, it seems like there were five waves down before an ABC hitting up to the trendline, signaling a possible strong bearish continuation. Swing sequence looks like an uptrend though. Haha I'm not going to care about the daily until I see some dedication to whatever it's doing.
4hr/3hr/2hr: These are the kinds of situations I don't like much. The break above the supports around 1.335-1.34 on a strong impulse. If I felt like being foolish I'd say that we are looking for a bounce off prior support and catch the impulse continuation. If I felt like being just as foolish I'd make an argument for being bearish.
It's funny because a few weeks ago I would have said this was one of the keys to my turnaround in trading, but now I would swear that none of it means anything. I feel like I just kind of "respond" to the market based on things I'm very familiar with, rather than trying to figure it out.
Fascinating thing trading is. I still like this though because I get a nice feel and look at PA, and I know what to look for tomorrow.
Charts: left to right = monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hr - not sure how size will turn out
Straight to it...
Monthly: not surprising that we closed in an inside bar. As I have in the past, I take nothing from this chart besides the resistance at 1.35
Weekly: possible little 3br heading toward confirming my dragon? I think it's possible, but I'm looking closely at what my daily is saying too. Also: notice the different trendline I had before - I confirmed the pattern too early! I try not to base my analyses much on TLs because of that.
Daily: I try to not take Mondays too seriously, but there was a nice little inside bar break there. If a yesterday's high is taken, I might become more bullish. Otherwise, it seems like there were five waves down before an ABC hitting up to the trendline, signaling a possible strong bearish continuation. Swing sequence looks like an uptrend though. Haha I'm not going to care about the daily until I see some dedication to whatever it's doing.
4hr/3hr/2hr: These are the kinds of situations I don't like much. The break above the supports around 1.335-1.34 on a strong impulse. If I felt like being foolish I'd say that we are looking for a bounce off prior support and catch the impulse continuation. If I felt like being just as foolish I'd make an argument for being bearish.
It's funny because a few weeks ago I would have said this was one of the keys to my turnaround in trading, but now I would swear that none of it means anything. I feel like I just kind of "respond" to the market based on things I'm very familiar with, rather than trying to figure it out.
Fascinating thing trading is. I still like this though because I get a nice feel and look at PA, and I know what to look for tomorrow.
Charts: left to right = monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hr - not sure how size will turn out
I'd like to make a another post soon, but did that continuing rally come out of nowhere or what? 
Based on my earlier posts, seems like I just needed to refine my timing a bit (which I have been working on lately).
Based on my earlier posts, seems like I just needed to refine my timing a bit (which I have been working on lately).
It's been a full month since my last analysis and two weeks since my last trading day, so I figure this is a good time to pick this thread back up.
I would like to make this strictly longer term however to save me time, so now I'll only be doing daily and higher tfs.
First things first: From looking at my last post, I was pretty much dead on with what I was saying. The weekly 3br did fire and fuel the uptrend like I was saying, and the daily break I was referring to started it (after pulling back for a few days after the Monday IB break - spot on!). Not to be cocky though, I was quite thrown off with the weekly close on May 15 (lost some money there).
Now to analysis:
Monthly: so the inside bar broke upwards. Nothing significant here PA-wise other that what I've talked about. However, the simple fact that it took four whole months to go from 1.25 to 1.40 is like watching Warren Buffet a marathon compared to the conditions we have been seeing. It's very possible that normal conditions are very slowly returning the market.
Weekly: If you don't see the bull flag chances are you've never seen a chart before. This is something to be watching closely, however (or however closely you can watch a weekly chart). AB=CD pattern is there and so are the fib retracements. We are also at prior resistance from that ludicrous parabola a few months back. No call to be made without PA confirmation, however.
2-Day: The last bar closes Monday, so don't take that too seriously. This is a call I'd love to make, but with the unemployment nonsense I'd rather be right and skeptical than wrong and ignorant.
Daily: I spent some time studying Elliott Wave this month, and there is a clear five waves there after the flag. A bearish signal fired too. However, since I'm new to Elliott wave I'd rather watch then care.
Intraday: everything seems to support what I was talking about from the daily to weekly.
One thing I won't do is make a call on the market. I've learned to be more open-minded and reactive to the market rather than closed and predictive - I spent some time learning that one.
As a result, I'm using this thread as more of a learning tool than a "directional analysis" thread that I originally wanted it to be. I hope you learn something too.
Chart: left to right = monthly, weekly, 2 day, daily
I would like to make this strictly longer term however to save me time, so now I'll only be doing daily and higher tfs.
First things first: From looking at my last post, I was pretty much dead on with what I was saying. The weekly 3br did fire and fuel the uptrend like I was saying, and the daily break I was referring to started it (after pulling back for a few days after the Monday IB break - spot on!). Not to be cocky though, I was quite thrown off with the weekly close on May 15 (lost some money there).
Now to analysis:
Monthly: so the inside bar broke upwards. Nothing significant here PA-wise other that what I've talked about. However, the simple fact that it took four whole months to go from 1.25 to 1.40 is like watching Warren Buffet a marathon compared to the conditions we have been seeing. It's very possible that normal conditions are very slowly returning the market.
Weekly: If you don't see the bull flag chances are you've never seen a chart before. This is something to be watching closely, however (or however closely you can watch a weekly chart). AB=CD pattern is there and so are the fib retracements. We are also at prior resistance from that ludicrous parabola a few months back. No call to be made without PA confirmation, however.
2-Day: The last bar closes Monday, so don't take that too seriously. This is a call I'd love to make, but with the unemployment nonsense I'd rather be right and skeptical than wrong and ignorant.
Daily: I spent some time studying Elliott Wave this month, and there is a clear five waves there after the flag. A bearish signal fired too. However, since I'm new to Elliott wave I'd rather watch then care.
Intraday: everything seems to support what I was talking about from the daily to weekly.
One thing I won't do is make a call on the market. I've learned to be more open-minded and reactive to the market rather than closed and predictive - I spent some time learning that one.
As a result, I'm using this thread as more of a learning tool than a "directional analysis" thread that I originally wanted it to be. I hope you learn something too.
Chart: left to right = monthly, weekly, 2 day, daily
Forgot attachment.
Thank you, Ivan.
Unfortunately, this will likely be my last post in this thread for a while. After taking some time off for finals and a two week trip, my trading has really suffered. In an effort to simplify things and shift my focus, I'm going to cut everything above the 4 hour chart in my trading. I'm an intraday trader anyway, so it all works out.
Review from last post: unless something drastically changes in the next 24 hours, it seems the weekly signal will not fire (at least this week). As for the daily we saw a further collapse on Monday but with a steady rise since. My personal guess is that this is a steady rise as part of an overall 1-2-3 reversal. However, the 3 hour chart already bounced off of the daily trendline and declined from it, but has since gone on to make new highs.
I'm also a bit confused by the strength we've been seeing in the pullback compared to the initial decline -- the initial decline only went until Monday, and that might just have been leftover supply from the unemployment news. Since, the market has been decisively bullish.
If I were trading these timeframes, I think I would just wait for a clear signal to show something playing out. There is a nice inside bar on the 2-day that would be an indication, perhaps we made see a new bounce off of the daily trendline that would be indicative of a decline, maybe a break above the 1.4150-1.42 area and then a bounce off of it, something of that nature.
I hate trying to interpret news with longer term technicals.
Chart: left to right = weekly, 2 day, daily.
Good luck!
Unfortunately, this will likely be my last post in this thread for a while. After taking some time off for finals and a two week trip, my trading has really suffered. In an effort to simplify things and shift my focus, I'm going to cut everything above the 4 hour chart in my trading. I'm an intraday trader anyway, so it all works out.
Review from last post: unless something drastically changes in the next 24 hours, it seems the weekly signal will not fire (at least this week). As for the daily we saw a further collapse on Monday but with a steady rise since. My personal guess is that this is a steady rise as part of an overall 1-2-3 reversal. However, the 3 hour chart already bounced off of the daily trendline and declined from it, but has since gone on to make new highs.
I'm also a bit confused by the strength we've been seeing in the pullback compared to the initial decline -- the initial decline only went until Monday, and that might just have been leftover supply from the unemployment news. Since, the market has been decisively bullish.
If I were trading these timeframes, I think I would just wait for a clear signal to show something playing out. There is a nice inside bar on the 2-day that would be an indication, perhaps we made see a new bounce off of the daily trendline that would be indicative of a decline, maybe a break above the 1.4150-1.42 area and then a bounce off of it, something of that nature.
I hate trying to interpret news with longer term technicals.
Chart: left to right = weekly, 2 day, daily.
Good luck!