EUR/JPY Evening Trader

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Quote from TraderGreg:

Thanks for the encouragement, Inow. I won't give up, don't you worry about that.
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Dream On....go for it!!!

I am focusing on EUR/USD and AUD/USD right now...your main cross rate focuses are...?
 
Quote from TraderGreg:

During Watching

Based on my spreads I do have six pairs on my screen, but I don’t think I should be watching that many. I don’t think the GBP/CHF is worth keeping track of during Asian session, and the other three are on my screen right now, but I have decided to work on other things as well as watch the market, so I’m only going to keep track of my big three – the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and USD/JPY. I will likely decide on a fourth later between the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and AUD/USD, but for today I’m sticking to the big three.

Anyway, just started watching the market at 5:30 or so, and soon after had a big example between trading and watching for me. I am observing a potential reversal on the EUR/JPY, when I noticed that it seemed like a bearish reversal was occurring. I decided to watch it form before any action, but then once it appeared it began going down in earnest, I instinctively went for my mouse (for laptop - scroll thingy) as if I had to enter the trade! I was trying to preempt the signal and enter before it formed, so I wouldn’t risk losing the opportunity! I smiled and sat back. Two bars later, the formation never came, and the trade went directly against me, and it’s kind of funny to me. Two things come to mind: I am learning and learning to be patient for one, and of course my rant on the difference between commitments and ideas for me. Ha! If I keep this up I might actually make progress.

I also was looking into the opportunities at my school for the markets, which has a bond market fund managed by students as well as a long equity fund by students. However, I was looking at their “annual report,” and saw that they only kept 1.44% cash. Sounds like a bunch of morons.

Post Watching

I once had a trader tell me that real trading is boring, and watching the 15 min chart during Asian session is making me realize this. Mostly, it seemed like I just kept up by looking every bar or two (15-30 min), and doing other things in the meantime. I am assuming that this is the environment I need right now to work slowly.

Anyway, the EUR/JPY accomplished about 65 pips since I began watching it six hours ago, and the EUR/USD and USD/JPY had 40 or so apiece. Of this, very little of it seemed tradeable, as I saw a beautiful morning star on the USD/JPY fail, and a good bullish engulfing entry leading to it may have yielded 20. Other than that, the GBP/CHF, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and AUD/USD did practically nothing as well (looking at them for the first time now). It seems to me now that, only a few months ago, I would have 12 trades in a session trying to catch the tiniest wiggle in a world of nothingness. I realize now that a good entry has to be offered, and there really isn’t much.

Calling it a night early as I haven’t made six hours of sleep in three straight days. Good trading.
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forget my other post...I see the answer here...
 
Check this out!

EUR/JPY

Dotted gray line through right top is the 50% reversal for the move over two weeks ending Dec 5 or so.

The three-bottom where I have two TLs are where the 50% was for the move on the left.

Picture perfect AB=BC from last of three-bottom to the right top

Perfect 2B reversal with a perfect pullback from left top.

Dominant trend = down.

Couldn't find a pattern for the ratios, but there is a small chance I might actually know what I'm doing here. :cool:

Edit: When/if the 1-2-3 reversal from the 2B completes, it could get fun!
 

Attachments

Ok, wanted to discuss my trade idea, my night, and my thinking process. Well, at the start of my trading work, I was extremely angry – I wanted to celebrate my final day of college classes this semester, but became extremely angered as I tried and failed to work out for the first time in three weeks because of severe shoulder pain (took time off because been battling it) and decided to stay in and trade. However, it was after about 30 min of work when I discovered my EUR/JPY bias above and became excited. I had made a decision on the market for all the right reasons (according to my current knowledge/experience), and decided on a fantastic market entry point with an equally impressive R:R.

Whether I turned out to be wrong or right, I couldn’t care less – I have made some great decisions here on my road to becoming a trader, so I actually decided to go out and celebrate based solely on that and see how it worked out – and I never thought about it at all during this time.

Now what happened? Well, it went directly against me, and it seemed like I picked the swing bottom to go short and would have been stopped out. And you know what – it doesn’t matter a bit! I understood the reasons for my trade, the risks and rewards of my trade, and realized there was a very recognizable chance that it would go against me. I recognized this, so I took the opportunity to prepare both a winning and losing pacman for when I came back (see attachment). Even if this setup is statistically a loser, it doesn’t matter – it is above and beyond nearly everything I have done so far, and I will do nothing but learn.

I would like to add that I noticed the original 15 min short well before indicated on my chart here, but I didn't realize several of the other reasons why I would have entered the trade until where I indicated, and was only playing the bars and overhead trendline.

I also decided at the start of the day to cut the AUD/USD, GBP/CHF, and EUR/CHF off the screen, leaving the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF. I know I didn’t want more than two exposures to any currency, but I made this change for three reasons: it is a major, it has an excellent spread and at least for the moment it is moving well on a 3 hr and under basis (choppy top?). I may need to re-analyze if it goes back to sub 100 pip daily ranges like it seems to have been before August, but for now I expect to stick with my set of four.
Good trading.
 

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