EU - where is it going next?
- Thread starter Steve
- Start date
I still think 6E is going to 1.342 and then probably on to 1.37.
However we've been stuck in a slowly climbing 50 pip channel for weeks now. I expected 6E to hit 1.342 by now but the fact that it hasn't coupled with the lethargic PA may indicate that it needs to drop a bit further before resuming any climb.
Now that the ZEW is out of the way, I think if 6E stays above 1.328 after the US news in a few hours then I still favor being long. Otherwise 6E is probably going below 1.317.
I have hedged my bets by selling the yen- far weaker than the Euro.
However we've been stuck in a slowly climbing 50 pip channel for weeks now. I expected 6E to hit 1.342 by now but the fact that it hasn't coupled with the lethargic PA may indicate that it needs to drop a bit further before resuming any climb.
Now that the ZEW is out of the way, I think if 6E stays above 1.328 after the US news in a few hours then I still favor being long. Otherwise 6E is probably going below 1.317.
I have hedged my bets by selling the yen- far weaker than the Euro.
Abe hints at corp tax cut offset to sales tax hike last night helped, as well as US data today and US yields helping UJ.
I thought we would take out 3400 before dropping but remember seeing something about Greece worries early in the week here.
From what I gather unless we get some real horrible US data, the FED is set to ease on the QE in Sept so that should help USD and seems the main driver still.
Can't forget some political stuff later in Sept for EUR.
I thought we would take out 3400 before dropping but remember seeing something about Greece worries early in the week here.
From what I gather unless we get some real horrible US data, the FED is set to ease on the QE in Sept so that should help USD and seems the main driver still.
Can't forget some political stuff later in Sept for EUR.
Yea I'm flat for now. It may run the topside stops above 3430 being touted but not expecting a huge run ahead of FOMC or Jackson Hole which may be a non-event from what I gather.
The FED will start to taper but i's not like they are cutting QE in the grand scheme (consensus is for 20bln), and the ECB will continue their forward guidance as well. Not seeing any rate hikes in the near future for either of them. The FED doesn't want to kill equity markets I'm sure. We have elections in Germany, and a new FED chairman soon.
Prefer playing USD/JPY, AUD/USD and some Euro crosses for now in FX land. Maybe some USD/CAD for a long USD play if that matures as CAD data has been weak.
