Etymology of the word martingale and the unforeseeable nature of the future

[Steve777]

Yes, Steve's reasoning is solid in the context of financial mathematics. By highlighting the importance of the no-arbitrage condition and martingale properties in financial models, he underlines a fundamental principle: without these conditions, financial models would allow for risk-free profits, which contradicts the real-world complexity and unpredictability of financial markets. His argument aligns with established financial theories that aim to realistically model markets as systems where future prices cannot be perfectly anticipated based on historical data alone. This approach helps ensure the robustness and reliability of financial models in reflecting true market dynamics.

 

[Steve777]

Well I don't know it's an interesting thing I don't know if trading is a useless endeavor

In another word, Martingale is pretty useless for trading. Or might that be trading is a futile endeavor? In any case, you (or the proponent of Efficient Market Hypothesis) left out one crucial component: humans are, by nature, fickle as fck.

Well I don't know if it says that trading is a useless thing but it took me 20 years of studying to get to the point where I could trade and say with all truth that I achieved 55% returns after taxes like 4 years in a row.. there are 3.5 or so. I'm kind of fuzzy I need to work on my record keeping that's going to be part of my system that I swore I would not try it again until I deployed in hence I have been focusing on development for the past year it's too much to do and keep track of positions in the market without losing my ass.

If you've been able to sustain yourself trading then I suppose it's not a lost cause but if you haven't been then I suppose it might be