ETF arbitrage day vs swing trades, eg TQQQ vs SQQQ

I day trade ETF arb pairs like SQQQ/TQQQ, TVIX/SVXY, NUGT/DUST, UWT/DWT, LABD/LABU.

my biggest failure as trader this last 20 years is extreme risk avoidance, trading small size. its why im still a vendor; i trade small.

ETF arbs solves this, because with the safety net of "if one goes up, the other goes down, guaranteed" I have no fear of big stop losses, since gains in one offset losses in the other. solving to get past breakeven in all mkt types is the current challenge. thoughts?

Enjoyed reading this Ken.

I have followed the trend/performance of a few pairs for the past 10 years & convinced a long [historical] hold say $10k in each pair set is a no-brainer, no loser.

example as seen in

https://www.stocksplithistory.com/?symbol=tqqq

https://www.stocksplithistory.com/?symbol=sqqq

Same for UPRO/SPXU, UDOW/SDOW.

The benefit that I see from playing long in these pairs is in the splits as well as after each split there are several exit opportunities of the peaks & valleys.

Take recent times taking Jan 2, 2020 a $10k play in TQQQ/SQQQ, today you'd be down a bunch, approx 15%by my calculation. So its not always +/- percentage difference = 0 or zero sum. Because each pair are at different prices, I see the long play based purely on the historical performance of the indices (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P) that an equal dollar investment in each the leveraged 3x pairs that long term is a no-loser.

except the SVXY/UVXY pairs never did work out, a loss on both sides

Folks might say 'why not simply buy & hold just the index & ride the wave', sure that works also especially adding in long ATM covered calls.

As for day/week trading the pairs I think its difficult to get in done right & timing.

Although considerable guesswork/timing when doing this in the expiring options week
 
step 1: calculate # of shares needed for near breakeven (these still need adjusting; LABD/LABU closest):

step 2: figure out traling stop/scaling strategy to produce winning daily P&L

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That's strange; but not surprising= you made a lot more on TQQQ, than SQQQ, with TQQQ being the smaller position.[I see now that is SEPT, I was thinking TQQQ/$60s=this week .LOL] FRI-MARCH 18/2020
 
@Ken, if it's not too personal & you wont mind posting (otherwise ignore this request) - with your personal day/swing trading of the leveraged ETF, taking into account all the work & effort that you put into it with the profits/losses, what is your average year over year performance %, not dollars?
 
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