ETF Arb trade strategy for today 2PM Fed announcement

tango29 said:
Have you thought of a trade before the announcement? On days like this with a big move in one direction I like to try for a move opposite in the last half hour before release time. I assume it is people closing positions going into the announcement. If it happens early I pass, but I have had a fair success ratio with the idea. I don't usually hit it right the first trade, but I keep a tight stop and will try 2 more reentries before I quit fighting the trend. I also like to have locked up profit for the day before being the top or bottom picker.
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Great point, I'm trading TNA/TZA ahead of 2PM now, they've got the widest range clean chart patterns
 
I'm out with 2, 5 and 10. Lunchtime and sorry for polluting your thread. I Just saw your post with an idea and thought I'd throw one out.
 
KCalhoun said:
Here's a strategy I'll test today right after Powell's 2pm announcement.

Assumption is that fed rate information will move the market up or down, we just don't know which direction, so I'm hedging.

The strategy: put buy stop orders in for both long bias TQQQ and short bias SQQQ at .50 or so above market, right before 2pm.

Similar opposing pairs are TNA/TZA TVIX/SVXY etc,, I'll trade whichever has strongest chart pattern.

Whichever triggers first is the starting trade. I'm using OTO conditional orders with trailing stops as usual.

Note there's usually a whipsaw reaction right after the announcement, followed by trending tradable setup. Goal is to profit from major move if one occurs.

Would like any comments or ideas... tia
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Why not implement this trade in a different format,, for example buying a put and a call, and not having to worry about stops,, you can use the shortest time frame available for options, weeklys maybe

other method is shorting 2 puts or 2 calls same strike but different months or weeks if your doing weekly, with the one being shorted the farther out months or weeks, in either case both these strategies will make money if the move is big as your anticipating with out the fear of getting whipsawed or stopped then the move taking place
 
Good ideas..... today it didn't work because market just chopped around after fed/Powell. Lesson learned note to self is use further away entries to try and avoid chop.

I test a lot of ideas trying to figure it all out. Frustrating sometimes, feel like Edison testing ideas for lightbulbs...
 
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