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ET Official Bottom Watch Thread
- Thread starter Ivanovich
- Start date
Quote from MKTrader:
You realize that's about a 75% rally from here, right? When has the Dow gained that much in 13-14 months?
If things turned incredibly bullish, the Nasdaq could do something like that, but the Dow? That would be unprecedented.
I am still convinced that nothing fundamentally has changed between June 2007 and now. All of this credit crisis and recession talk is nonsense because the economic numbers don't point to a recession.
A massive short squeeze will send to dow to 11,500 in a few weeks and then a steady rally to 14,000. If the fundamentals were weaker the bear market could last many years, but the recovery in this case will indeed be 'v' shaped.
I think longer term. The newspapers and TV are dominated with headlines of recession and crisis, but is that really the case? Maybe not.
IMO today was the beginning of what will turn out to be a very dissapointing sucker rally. I just don't think these financial companies etc can be fixed by the gov throwing x amount of money at them. I also think that at some point the huge US debt and deficit and the resulting tax burden on the US citizen will destroy the economy. But I am not putting any money on it. Strict daytrading for me!
Bull markets climb a wall of worry. And bull markets are built on maximum pessimism, just like bear markets are built on excessive optimism.
At some point, the market is going to have discounted bad news in the future.
Bad news will still come out, and some really bad news might come out, but the market won't care.
Fundamentalists and permabears will short rallies, arguing that the news is bad and will get worse.
They'll claim that they market is ignoring the bad news, and that the other shoe is going to drop soon, and the market will fall back down. You betcha.
But the market will keep climbing nonetheless, up and up that wall of worry.
Bear markets in general do not last long. This one is about to end.
At some point, the market is going to have discounted bad news in the future.
Bad news will still come out, and some really bad news might come out, but the market won't care.
Fundamentalists and permabears will short rallies, arguing that the news is bad and will get worse.
They'll claim that they market is ignoring the bad news, and that the other shoe is going to drop soon, and the market will fall back down. You betcha.
But the market will keep climbing nonetheless, up and up that wall of worry.
Bear markets in general do not last long. This one is about to end.
Quote from smilingsynic:
Bull markets climb a wall of worry. And bull markets are built on maximum pessimism, just like bear markets are built on excessive optimism.
At some point, the market is going to have discounted bad news in the future.
Bad news will still come out, and some really bad news might come out, but the market won't care.
Fundamentalists and permabears will short rallies, arguing that the news is bad and will get worse.
They'll claim that they market is ignoring the bad news, and that the other shoe is going to drop soon, and the market will fall back down. You betcha.
But the market will keep climbing nonetheless, up and up that wall of worry.
Bear markets in general do not last long. This one is about to end.
Normally I would agree, but I can't see how this economy will grow after outsourcing a ton of technology/engineering/manufacturing jobs and assets. What we are left with are service bullshit jobs, like most in finance. I hate to see people lose their jobs but lets face it, a ton of people in the industry are overpaid, non-essential, and made bonuses by lying/screwing everyone. Instead of creating real economic growth over the past 6 years, they only served to create a house of cards. The last recovery relied largely on construction and real estate jobs, probably not coming back for a while as there is such a large inventory right now.
Quote from smilingsynic:
Bull markets climb a wall of worry. And bull markets are built on maximum pessimism, just like bear markets are built on excessive optimism.
At some point, the market is going to have discounted bad news in the future.
Bad news will still come out, and some really bad news might come out, but the market won't care.
Fundamentalists and permabears will short rallies, arguing that the news is bad and will get worse.
They'll claim that they market is ignoring the bad news, and that the other shoe is going to drop soon, and the market will fall back down. You betcha.
But the market will keep climbing nonetheless, up and up that wall of worry.
Bear markets in general do not last long. This one is about to end.
In terms of market technicals, the market is more oversold than ever.
The closest comparisons include July 23, 2002, October 3, 1974, and May 26, 1970.
Within three months after those days, the market had risen at least 19.90% (highest was 23.26%).
Within six months, the market had gone up 27.90% (1970), 41.23% (1974), and 21.21% (2002).
If history is any precedent, the bear is about to go into hibernation any day now.
Its a safe bet that those who caused this, made insane money on the plunge. The only solace is they will rot in hell. Unfortunatley, I don't believe in hell. So, grin up and bare it Gen Y'ers... and those to follow, you've been f*cked by people you never even knew.
markets go up and down ..... 1 trillion dollars in new debt tends to stick around awhile.
All, I really want to know is ..... who is it exactly that we line up and shoot?
On second thought, could this be an attempt to make the Chinese eat our debt? If so, its a master stroke.
markets go up and down ..... 1 trillion dollars in new debt tends to stick around awhile.
All, I really want to know is ..... who is it exactly that we line up and shoot?
On second thought, could this be an attempt to make the Chinese eat our debt? If so, its a master stroke.