ET Official Bottom Watch Thread

Quote from Mvic:

Pull up a chart of 87 and the month leading up to the crash, note any similarities? Just putting it out there because I am getting a very bad feeling here.

GS selling off.
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It's hard to analyze 87 because most data providers don't go back that far. So we don't know what was going on.

One thing I'm seeing today that's positive is that gold is coming down. Gold & the S&P have been negatively correllated lately. That's what makes this strange. Gold is down yet the S&P was at its lows of the day.

My guess is that some of the gold traders are betting on the markets, some even taking money out of gold to put into the indexes and index futures. I think it's a positive sign.

Also vix maxed out at over 70.

The Lehman CDS auction results are that they're worth almost 10 cents on the dollar. Sounds terrible right? But that's what everyone was expecting. There's another announcement later this afternoon. Once that is made we could see a "buy the news".

To me everything points to this being the bottom. At least temporarily. It could be tested soon..
 
Quote from cunparis:

It's hard to analyze 87 because most data providers don't go back that far. So we don't know what was going on.

One thing I'm seeing today that's positive is that gold is coming down. Gold & the S&P have been negatively correllated lately. That's what makes this strange. Gold is down yet the S&P was at its lows of the day.

My guess is that some of the gold traders are betting on the markets, some even taking money out of gold to put into the indexes and index futures. I think it's a positive sign.

Also vix maxed out at over 70.

The Lehman CDS auction results are that they're worth almost 10 cents on the dollar. Sounds terrible right? But that's what everyone was expecting. There's another announcement later this afternoon. Once that is made we could see a "buy the news".

To me everything points to this being the bottom. At least temporarily. It could be tested soon..
More...

I am hoping that you are right, even though I have a few ES puts I don't want to go through another Black Monday, not from this level. GS is recovering which is a good sign also.

The gold price can be misleading in that institutions could be selling to raise cash given the number of institutions that need cash right now.

It will take a concerted global loan guarantee plan this weekend to turn things around. If we don't get it they may as well not open the markets until they can sort one out.
 
Quote from Mvic:


The gold price can be misleading in that institutions could be selling to raise cash given the number of institutions that need cash right now.
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I'm not sure institutions were holding gold. But anway, I've seen Gold tipping off moves. But what's interesting is sometimes it does a fake out in the opposite direction. Manipulation? Maybe. It's being alleged in the silver industry.

Keep an eye on ZG & ES 5 min charts and see if you see Gold as a leading indicator. I'm long ES and short ZG. This morning I was -6k on the Gold trade and thinking I should have done a spread going long ES & long Gold (remember they're negatively correlated). But now my Gold is up 3k. That's a big turnaround from gold (930 to 880). That is signaling a bottom for the indexes as people move from gold futures to index futures. Even though ES was pretty flat today, Gold is going straight down!

Silver is down 7.5%, Copper down 10%, and Gold is 0%. Why? In my opinion people were doing more of the "safe haven" buying. Why people buy something at a 10 year high and consider it "safe haven" is beyond me. Anyway, we'll have to keep watching to see if this is reliable and continues..
 
Bottom is reached when Dow is in the area of 5600-6200...Don't be surprised if we get there. And it won't be a "V" rebound, just a straight line for years to come that will take out many traders and whatever interest is left in the stock market. This generation has seen the best and now the worst years, followed by complete disengagement. You heard it here first.
 
Quote from Cariocas:

Bottom is reached when Dow is in the area of 5600-6200...Don't be surprised if we get there. And it won't be a "V" rebound, just a straight line for years to come that will take out many traders and whatever interest is left in the stock market. This generation has seen the best and now the worst years, followed by complete disengagement. You heard it here first.
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It's not hard to believe that scenario!
 
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