ET as a Special Case of the Turing Test

Fully realizing that this is casting swearls before pine, I just read a great line in a novel: "I know very little. But I know a great deal about it."
 
Quote from dunleggin:

Metaphorically speaking, legion are the ET posters possessing only a hammer, for whom every new thread represents a nail.
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And it is a sledgehammer.
 
Quote from Argent:

Sorry I missed it. Are you the kind of guy who cries out "Theatre!" at a fire?
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I've always felt the urge to, but change my mind at the last minute.

Ok, I've changed my mind, in response to the question of "how to hedge ... so if I call 911 someone comes?": this is some kind of think-out-of-the-box quiz, deadbroke used to ask these all the time too. They're good fun. I think the answer will be something like:
- call friend/relative/taxi after calling 911
- own the hospital/ambulance
- send out flash mob tweet to your location
these will increase the probability "someone" comes to your emergency and hedges against no one coming for very little incremental cost.
I hope I pass the this Turbing Test and got close to the answer :)
 
Quote from zedDoubleNaught:

I've always felt the urge to, but change my mind at the last minute.

Ok, I've changed my mind, in response to the question of "how to hedge ... so if I call 911 someone comes?": this is some kind of think-out-of-the-box quiz, deadbroke used to ask these all the time too. They're good fun. I think the answer will be something like:
- call friend/relative/taxi after calling 911
- own the hospital/ambulance
- send out flash mob tweet to your location
these will increase the probability "someone" comes to your emergency and hedges against no one coming for very little incremental cost.
I hope I pass the this Turbing Test and got close to the answer :)
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Thanks. I like that! I can only add to the 911 call "There's a crazy man with a gun!"
 
Quote from Argent:

Insomnia. And mentally trying out some ideas in the overnight index markets. I think ET may be more calming than late night infomercials for trading systems which produce unimagineable wealth. But I think I found exactly what I am looking for in this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=225190&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
I am not familiar with Murray Ruggiero's work, as I assiduously avoid the trading literature and promotional websites. But superficially he seems like he has some intelligence bona fides. And, like me, looking for idiots. Fools are the fish of the trading fisherman. I characterize the responses to the wiggly thing on the end of his fishing line as "thank you for posting so I have an excuse to prove to you that I am smarter than you are." But I got hooked myself by the exchange of opinions on the correlation, or lack thereof, between lines-of-code to implement a strategy and that strategy's efficacy. I made two decisions on the intelligence of the opposed posters based on my own codes. But I am the fly on the wall, and like Tar Baby, don't say nuthin'. The earliest attempts to fool the Turing test at least had the machine contestants responding to the human questioner. What does it say about ET that respondents essentially ignore each other? Easy for a machine, or a human, to emulate a soapbox.
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Maybe my own view of my own intelligence is much higher than it actually is, or, as it appears to an external party. I suspect everyone thinks similarily of their own abilities, believing their own skills are much higher than is the reality. I do remember this being a topic of a recent paper.

Is that what you are getting at?

I would venture a hypothesis here: the ability to accurately assess oneself (and one's skill) is directly proportional to ones intelligence... performance aside; hence the post direcly above mine by a user registered in Jul 2008.

Mike
 
Quote from Mike805:

Maybe my own view of my own intelligence is much higher than it actually is, or, as it appears to an external party. I suspect everyone thinks similarily of their own abilities, believing their own skills are much higher than is the reality. I do remember this being a topic of a recent paper.

Is that what you are getting at?

I would venture a hypothesis here: the ability to accurately assess oneself (and one's skill) is directly proportional to ones intelligence... performance aside; hence the post direcly above mine by a user registered in Jul 2008.

Mike
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You are remembering the Dunning-Kruger Effect post by one of ET's most prominent examples of it:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=202114&highlight=dunning

In fact I started this thread because I wanted to discuss how you to determine quickly if a poster really understands trading or just thinks he does. Dunning-Kruger complicates this because people who really know their stuff tend to be modest because they know what they don't know.

About assessing your own intelligence, I am really smart about somethings, and that leads me to think that I am way smarter than I am about other things. In fact I stumble over my own stupidity several times a day, like a seam in a carpet.
 
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