Estimation and Prediction Trading
- Thread starter aquarian1
- Start date
To: Don't miss the bus
I do not find my post unclear (see below)
I am not interested in wasting time with forum trolls.
There has so far not been one substantive post (other than a question of high low order.
I am happy to discuss with those that make contributions or ask questions on method or wish to share their method.
Trolls can post in the other threads.
---from my first post------
I am interested in developing contacts with others who may be interested in predictive trading (PT).
In PT you are predicting the turns in price by using price, time, and other factors. There could be other factors exogenous to the market that are useful for PT.
I have been working on my project for several years. I am looking for others who also are working on PT. My project is built on tracking ES swing points and looking for time price relationships.
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I would ask that :
wise-acres,
nay-sayers,
forum trolls,
rude people and
those who feel that they are auditioning for Saturday night live please go elsewhere.
For this thread if you have nothing positive to say please don't post here .
Unfortunately ET does not give the OP of the thread the ability to block certain posters. As a result most threads are trashed by non-traders and immature people.
If I get too many of such post I will discontinue posting here.
If you find this thread are interested in this topic you can PM me.
Thank-you to any good and positive people who post in this thread. [
-----
I do not find my post unclear (see below)
I am not interested in wasting time with forum trolls.
There has so far not been one substantive post (other than a question of high low order.
I am happy to discuss with those that make contributions or ask questions on method or wish to share their method.
Trolls can post in the other threads.
---from my first post------
I am interested in developing contacts with others who may be interested in predictive trading (PT).
In PT you are predicting the turns in price by using price, time, and other factors. There could be other factors exogenous to the market that are useful for PT.
I have been working on my project for several years. I am looking for others who also are working on PT. My project is built on tracking ES swing points and looking for time price relationships.
-----------
I would ask that :
wise-acres,
nay-sayers,
forum trolls,
rude people and
those who feel that they are auditioning for Saturday night live please go elsewhere.
For this thread if you have nothing positive to say please don't post here .
Unfortunately ET does not give the OP of the thread the ability to block certain posters. As a result most threads are trashed by non-traders and immature people.
If I get too many of such post I will discontinue posting here.
If you find this thread are interested in this topic you can PM me.
Thank-you to any good and positive people who post in this thread. [
-----
July 3, 2012
Hi Random,
Thank-you for your question.
Not really, much more than that.
Primarily, I am speaking of using the information of proceeding days and the o/n session to develop and estimate of the high and the low for the upcoming RTH session. An example is shown below:
Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. yada, yada, yada....
What is your basis (reference) for how sequencially the ES puts in HOD's and LOD's? You mentioned o/n session, prior days, and the dominant trend. Is this the project or is there some underlying supply/demand mechanism for excess at these levels?
Interesting stuff. Thanks.
Interesting stuff. Thanks.
I'm going to guess that you are a janitor in real life; Only the blue-collar types walk around with this sort of completely delusional sense of self-worth;
This is not your forum. This is not your thread, as much you like to think just because you started it. Surely you'll "ban" me, but before you do so, grant me one courtesy of explaining...
Do you think you are the FIRST person in the world to propose that trading is about predicting and estimating where prices will be in the future? Do you suppose no one, in the last 2000 years of informal, and the last 100 years of formalized TRIED to figure out where price might be in the next period?
Complete. Utter. Insanity.
Surely everyone who's half way rational (and that's a tall order) is thinking, aquarian1: go. fu*k. your. self.
This is not your forum. This is not your thread, as much you like to think just because you started it. Surely you'll "ban" me, but before you do so, grant me one courtesy of explaining...
Do you think you are the FIRST person in the world to propose that trading is about predicting and estimating where prices will be in the future? Do you suppose no one, in the last 2000 years of informal, and the last 100 years of formalized TRIED to figure out where price might be in the next period?
Complete. Utter. Insanity.
Surely everyone who's half way rational (and that's a tall order) is thinking, aquarian1: go. fu*k. your. self.
July 3, 2012
Hi Bobbi,
Thank-you for your post.
Also thank-you for giving my hope that there will be some real discussion in this thread
Your question is really an excellent one. It really gets to the key question IMO. One needs to know which will be first in the day and roughly where - what price level (or when - what time).
For example today. It was an upslash day. So if one is in the trade long in the morning then the high is not that important. The high really determines the amount of profit but you are in on the right side of the day.
So as you say the sequencing is key.
In my terminology is the FE=LE or FE=HE? (Is the first end of the day, the LOD or the High of the day?) I am working with several techniques but it can still be problematic especially in the ES which, IMO is heavily manipulated and subject to sudden reversals. Rarely does it trend strongly as might CL or a graiin.
Another way to ask the question is will the dominant trend of the day be up, down or flat? (I attempt to predict this separately).
As you may know Douglass Taylor worked out a system called the Book Method in the 1950's. He developed it for grains. In his method he has 3 day types which follow in sequence.
They are:
Hi Bobbi,
Thank-you for your post.
Also thank-you for giving my hope that there will be some real discussion in this thread
Your question is really an excellent one. It really gets to the key question IMO. One needs to know which will be first in the day and roughly where - what price level (or when - what time).
For example today. It was an upslash day. So if one is in the trade long in the morning then the high is not that important. The high really determines the amount of profit but you are in on the right side of the day.
So as you say the sequencing is key.
In my terminology is the FE=LE or FE=HE? (Is the first end of the day, the LOD or the High of the day?) I am working with several techniques but it can still be problematic especially in the ES which, IMO is heavily manipulated and subject to sudden reversals. Rarely does it trend strongly as might CL or a graiin.
Another way to ask the question is will the dominant trend of the day be up, down or flat? (I attempt to predict this separately).
As you may know Douglass Taylor worked out a system called the Book Method in the 1950's. He developed it for grains. In his method he has 3 day types which follow in sequence.
They are:
- Buy day,
- Sell Day and
- Sell Short day.
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The sequencing is FE=LE, FE=HE and FE=HE, respectively.
I have not had enough time to test this method for the ES.
Another method I have mentioned is the O/n order. This is combined with the trend of the last few days.
If the o/n dir is down in an uptrend (that is the o/n is a retracement of yesterday) and you are expecting the uptrend to resume, then you have the sequence:
LH (yesterday) HL (o/n) then L/H is expected for today, making FE=LE.
However, if the o/n H is the peak of a multiday trend then the downtrend into opening will be continued into the day session and you will have HL - so FE=HE.
What ideas do you have?
Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only.
I'm interested in hearing what you have to say.
Thank-you 4PLiving,
I am also interested in what other people ideas are on estimation. That is it would be nice to be a two way street. It does not matter to me if you are new to trading or if your idea is unconventional. You will not receive ridicule from me.
(I understand people's reluctance to post given the heavy culture of forum trolls here at ET so you may choose to send your ideas via PM)
Depending on how my time goes I may not post on 5th and 6th (being a holiday week with light volume expected and erratic price movement).
I might resume on Monday 9 July and try to post each morning at or before opening, and then again after the close, perhaps for a week or so.
For everyone:
I am no longer reading the thread. If you wish to discuss estimation and prediction trading please PM me