Establishing a trend
- Thread starter Kiwiboy
- Start date
i guess it's cos I'm not comfortable with the amount of chaos you see in that 1st half-hour some mornings. Also I need some opening levels to work off of. I'm not too au faire with the pivots or S/R in general. I prefer to just sit out the opening and let it give me my OH & OL.
Actually, the real reason is that I still have sleep in my eyes (9:30amEST = 3:30am the next day in New Zealand!!) ;-{
cheers Funky
KB
Kiwi,
Are you still trying to get the hang of trends?
If so have you decided on how you will define a trend?
I was looking at your chart, and was wondering if bars 4 and 5, prior to your mark of first higher low after 10:00, are also higher lo bars?
Also, where you have your confirmation of down trend marked on your chart, that area is still above the UP trend line ( trader Vic wise) with the trend line beginning at the bottom of to 9:40 bar and coming across the bottom of the 10:55 bar and continuing on until broken at about 01:20.
But that's just the way I view a trend line.
sulong
hi sulong,
yeah, as ever the entry's the trickiest part. i keep an extra close eye on the shorter 3 period SMA for entry, coupled with 2 bars in a row of the same colour. that first possible HL painted at the 10:35am and 10:40am bars is a little suspect as the 3SMA is definitely down which indicates that wave may not have finished yet. a 2nd blue candle would be needed, but then you may have price run away on you. that is why I check with 1minute and 3 minute charts as well to help out.
of course, all of this is easy with the full day's chart in front of you isn't it? trading real-time is a different matter. do you have any suggestions as to entry rules which may help me out?
thx mate,
KB
I'm not sure if talking about entries is going to shed any light on the topic of the thread " Establishing a trend".
What I've been looking back on, is where does a trend start?
And from there I compare the start of a trend with that days pivot/ support/ resistance lines. ( floor pivots)
And guess what? Most of the trends I looked at began as a reversal off one of those lines.
Hope this helps.
sulong
PS.
Do your own study on this, and also look at where trends end, in relation to those P/S/R lines, let me know what you discover.
Isn't the optimum time for entry as soon as you've established a trend? For me, the timing of the 2 are the same.
Thx for the tip on the P/S/R - I'll have a look. I know the calcs for the floor pivots - but are they based off the ES high/low/close as at 4:15pm the previous day? if not as at what time?
Thx again,
KB
Where a trend starts, and where a trend is confirmed, are two different areas. As for optimum entry, that depends on what your comfortable with.
For myself, I believe the more confirmation I have, the more price risk I'll have to accept. Therefor I'm willing to take a position with limited conformation to keep my stoploss tighter.
I found that by doing my entries this way, my trades that go in my favor, so far, is just under 60%.
All these things I've been talking about, I've discovered through testing and testing and more testing. It seems like every day I'm making notes on what to test for the coming weekend.
I suggest you do your own testing and find out what makes sense to you.
Yes, thats what I use, 09:30 - 04:15
I trade the NQ
I suspect this is something that just about everybody who wants to trade trends has to deal with at or near the beginning. They see themselves entering at a point that seems far from the "beginning" of the trend and too near the end of the trend. So they try to find ways to enter earlier. However, entering a trend before the trend is actually in place is an entirely different sort of trade, a "pre-trend" entry, one which holds a relatively high probability of becoming a trend, though it may at the time be only a bounce.
Therefore, if you (kiwi) want to enter earlier, don't try to apply the same characteristics and rules to both types of entry. Examine and test them separately, then find ways to use them synergistically. Otherwise, you're going to find yourself trading counter-trend far too often.