ES, yield curve and gold

It was another swingy day as I sized up on GC and was in and out throughout the day. I currently have my long GC/short calls position on--very short term with the calls expiring February 23. I feel like we're going to be stuck between 1850-1900 for a bit. It ended up being a great day for me in GC and equity futures with ES being sharply unch'd (back into short ES/short puts). Quick scalp in NQ earlier in the day.

Bonds initially spiked after CPI but continues to bleed my P/L. When to pull the plug on this trade...?

Entered into a TSLA put ratio for fun.

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I was away from the screen all day except for the last hour of RTH--it was too nice a day to not be outside!

Pretty quiet trading day. I did what I could do defend the GC move over night--I played both defense and offence--moved some calls down. Closed the ES position with VIX in the low 18s. Opened an SPX put calendar to get some theta and vega.

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With vol bid in the morning, I re-entered into my short ES/short puts position. I thought I was a genius mid-day. My P/L was $10k higher two hours ago, but at least it was a green day.

Another day, another dollar with GC and the large theta with the short-term short calls.

Portfolio theta is $6.3k which is a bit on the high side. @ES&GC: A few days of nothing please (a smidge higher is ok).

Yield curve is steepening--unfortunately I'm just straight long treasuries.

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So ends a very good (but volatile) week.

Today was the second five-figure +P&L day of the week for the account. All my positions worked out, especially the SPX calendar. I threw in a tiny ES scalp but spent the day with my kids since they had the day off.

It's a long weekend on both sides of the 49th. I'll likely be looking for an opportunity to close the SPX calendar Tuesday/Wednesday.

+$44k for the week; +$88k YTD with a new high-water mark

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atrp2biz said:
I've been internally debating whether or not to start this journal but have obviously decided to do so. I have been trading off and on for a decade but have been more focused (and successful) over the past couple years.

I'll be posting my IB positions screenshots and YTD P/L at various intervals. I'm targeting +C$200,000 for 2023. I start each year 100% cash in this account as it makes taxes easier. It also lets me go skiing the last few days of the year without the urge to check my account. :) This is my 'fun' account. I have my other holdings in boring stuff and am generally buy-and-hold forever in my other accounts.

TIA for your support, call-outs and musings.

Views to start the year:
1. I will be playing the steepener on the 2/10 yield curve. At the start of the year, the curve was inverted by 53 bps. I anticipate being in this trade for most of the year unless it hits my target of +30 bps.

2. I'm a bit of a gold bug and my GC positions will be +delta biased.

3. I'm short-term bearish on ES. I can see the potential of 3400 some time in Q1. It's been in a range since mid-December so unless we breakout (up) out of this range, this will be my bias for now.
More...

what's 200k in terms of % return for you?

If you can pull off 40-50k week, then 200k seem low. Are your dd typically larger?
 
I won’t go into detail on account size (it’s just a fun account anyways) but this week was definitely atypical. I’ve had 20% DDs in the past while my largest DD from my HWM YTD was $40k (but only because I was stupid which you’ll see three or so weeks ago).

The stars were aligned for me this week starting the week short vol, long vol at the close on Wednesday, and short vol again on Thursday. I’m also being overly aggressive with my GC position and trading. I should roll out some calls early next week to reduce my gamma exposure. If my ZT position would ever behave…

$200k might be on the low side for the year. I just need to stay disciplined to mitigate DDs so keeping a lower target (at least for now) might help in staying disciplined.
 
I'm back after a brief posting hiatus. I need to figure out how I want to use this journal. Posting everyday became somewhat exhausting while posting every three weeks doesn't satisfy the point of the journal.

I've had somewhat of a life event. I removed myself from the corporate world in January for a variety of reasons--I just needed a reset. However, there were elements that I missed. In a couple weeks, I'll be joining another company in my industry in a role with higher seniority and higher pay than the one I left--it was simply an offer I couldn't pass up. Although spending more time with family has been great, I feel as though I still have some unfinished business before I call it a career.

Trading-wise, I'm about half way to my 2023 goal of $200k. With my return to the office, I need to figure out how I will incorporate my trading. I might be relegated to only using my phone during the day to trade which isn't ideal. This might force me to simplify/reduce my positions and areas of focus. Also, given that it's only March, I need to figure out if $200k is the right target.

My only current positions are short ES strangles and the TUT which has had an incredible run the past two days. I wish I was straight long ZT but I put the TUT back on two days ago having avoided the treasury carnage over the past couple weeks. I vigorously defended the ES strangles by rolling down early and often leaving only a scratch on the day's P/L. I exited my GC position today when my deltas crossed zero which also added to the day's P/L.

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Another massive steepening move in the yield curve. Are we on the path to a positive slope in the TUT? I’m sitting tight on this position.
 
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