ES, yield curve and gold

[atrp2biz]

Well that didn't quite work. I should have closed the additional longs half an hour after I bought them as GC went up to 1959.

1. I peeled off some ES puts at the close and bought an SPX March 4030/February 4000 put diagonal. I'm setup short and looking for volatility to return.

2. TUT was red again today--back to normal!

3. Still long the additional 4 GC contracts. Bought back some of the calls in the morning and sold them back out near the end of the day.

Closed the TSLA strangle. I'll be able to buy a nice dinner with the profits.

 

[atrp2biz]

I'm usually bummed when trading closes on Friday with no trading on weekends, but I'm welcoming a break this weekend. I'm drained and a weekend with the family will help reset my mindset.

I was pretty stupid last night. I added 4 more GC contracts and when GC went down to about 1937, I bought back all the February 1950 short calls. I caught the bottom with the calls and then sold all but 2 GC contracts. At one point I was long 16 contracts with only 2 OTM calls to offset it. This was way too big resulting in me sleeping with one eye open all night. I reset this morning and am now positioned the way I want in gold. It ended up being a profitable GC day, but that's besides the point. I need to be better.

I closed most of my short ES/short puts position with VIX in the low 18s. I bought another calendar with the front end expiring the end of next week taking advantage of the term structure with FOMC next week. It was a decent ES/SPX day with a short scalp late afternoon.

I sold some TSLA strangles (filled only half of what I wanted) with the IV spike.

The weekend is here and much needed.

+$27K for the week
+$80k YTD

 

[SunTrader]

I might be off-based in saying, it seems like you have too many balls in the air at the same time.

I kinda had a similar week starting real well till yesterday but ended on a good note today.

But I'll recharge over weekend as well.

 

[atrp2biz]

I appreciate your perspective. I'm not sure if I have too many balls in the air, but rather need to avoid trading outside my personality. I hate being wrong and I need to be better a taking losses. I should avoid directional bets and trade around what I'm comfortable with (my personality) by taking a view on volatility (both short and long) with theta on my side (the majority of the time).

 

[atrp2biz]

Legged into a NFLX put diagonal (+Mar 360/-Feb 340). I could see it going back down to its pre-earnings level of $340. IVP = 1% so potentially a good entry from a volatility perspective.

 

[atrp2biz]

1. My two SPX time spreads worked very well today with volatility picking up. I was tempted to close one of them, but didn't. Re-entered some of the short ES/short put position with VIX touching 20. ES between 4000-4020 on Friday would make me very happy.

2. Adjusted my yield curve trade with the ratio now 3:1 making it a bullish steepener.

3. Added some GC contracts as a scalp--haven't closed it yet.

TSLA flirted with the put side of my strangle. IV came in, so I just decided to close it for a quick $2.46/contract profit. As I posted above, I legged into a NFLX diagonal.

 

[atrp2biz]

1. I dropped the ball badly on ES. I was aggressive with my shorts going into the close. Flattening out half an hour before the close would have been great. I held on and was slapped around.

2. Yield curve worked very well today especially with my additional ZT length.

3. GC has been working for me. Sold some contracts in the early evening, bought them back in the middle of the night (and then some) and sold them back out when the sun came out. I'm actually tiny short as GC seems to take a bit of a dump overnight.

Overall, gave up most of yesterday's gains.

Everyone and their mother expects 25 bps tomorrow. I expect a continuation of the rhetoric of "the job isn't done yet". Anything dovish would unwind everything the Fed has done over the past year with respect to controlling inflation. My ES/SPX position is negatively corelated to my yield curve position. Gold is flat. If I had to pick my poison, I prefer SPX down (in moderation) at the expense of further inverting the yield curve.

On a personal note, I'm working on my strong lifts again. I'm not going 5x5 but doing 3 sets of 8 for all five exercises in one workout 2-3 times per week to complement my cardio. I'm getting too old for 5x5 and not the safest doing them in my basement without pins or a spotter.

 

[Specterx]

3. I'm short-term bearish on ES. I can see the potential of 3400 some time in Q1. It's been in a range since mid-December so unless we breakout (up) out of this range, this will be my bias for now.

Funny that I have exactly the same view. Only moderate conviction, but equities feel a bit rich here given that rates may stay high for some time - all the more so if there's a 'soft landing'.

 

[SunTrader]

Although it was end of month $SPX had strong volume today, most since mid Dec.

Of course one wrong word or even comma tomorrow and bulls could get spoked.

 

[atrp2biz]

Funny that I have exactly the same view. Only moderate conviction, but equities feel a bit rich here given that rates may stay high for some time - all the more so if there's a 'soft landing'.

The risk to bears is if this is not a given.