Quote from gerry875:
i've been trading the minis since the end of 2001. i am absolutely not an expert - i'm just telling my conclusions based on what i've been able to watch so far.
i don't think that rising volume alone is necessarily bad - but the more volume a product has - the more interesting it gets for all kind of market participants. right now the russell is of course the best contract for smaller traders.
just compare the movements of ES and ER2 on a short time frame these days - almost every time the ER2 has the much higher volatility. for example - while the ES is moving barely 1 point ($50) - the ER2 might be gone for 3 points ($150) - or at least 2.
what is the reason for this? the ES seems like a fat and lazy animal most of the time - while the ER2 is dynamic and moves further with less pullbacks. if ER2's volume keeps rising this fast (at the moment we see more than 100K contracts almost every day) there will be more and more big traders and robot trading in it (and hence more efficiency i'd say) - which i don't see as an advantage - but i hope i'm wrong.
just read this file:
http://www.cme.com/files/emini.pdf
search for "volume" - you will find 3 diagrams that show the development of the avg. daily volume of ES, NQ and ER2 since they've been created - pretty impressive.
I wasn't exactly calling you out bro. I have just heard this opinion so many times. And I was wondering where it comes from. All new traders or "newer traders" tend to have this opinion. The idea that big volume is bad in other products because of what happened to the spoo is flawed.
First off, there are only so many big traders around. Although it is not easy scalping above 50 lots in the ER2 ---it can be done. You can get into large positions. You cannot just hit thousand lots like in the ES. Remember one thing tho----the spoo is 2 markets ---the ER2 is one dominate electronic market.
Now that a trend is underway and volatility is RISING in all stock markets. You should see that your trading in the ES is getting easier and more profitable. Especially, if you are any kind of momentum player. The big days of the spoo will come around again. The ES has been hampered by the machine ONLY because of the lower volatility coupled with the order protocols and the pit. These things have acted synergistically to F@#CK up the product--IMO. They now have the order protocol up to 1500 and soon it will be all you can eat---to kill the pit. Notice how over the past month with VOL starting to rise the ES has gotten a little better? That is because the order protocols are higher.