cursed yourself by not validating your edge first.
ES - Trying to tame the beast
- Thread starter chillibean
- Start date
cursed yourself by not validating your edge first.
Hi Chilli,
I mean this in the most constructive way. Looking over your entries and exits, both look pretty random and suspect. Random in that why one would take a position at that point. A lot of them needs some price action confirmation or there is direct dis-confirmation. And suspect on why the exit there, when there was a swing in your favor and then a retest of that swing, but no exit. Additionally, some entries appear to be "contradictory" from day to day, specifically the "bottom of range" breakouts are both shorts and longs that occur after a consolidation period.
Now totally guessing since the bandwidth is so narrow in forums and data provided is small, it appears that you are trying for some pretty big swings and letting profitable trades go to negative. It is as if the trades have a set expectation, market action be dammed. In one of the archives, one person described the targets as getting most of the swings, as it happens, i.e. what the market gives.
So I would consider trying for smaller moves and more of them. ES has a rhythm, although different each day, but it is there, sometimes small, sometimes bigger. For entries, look for more high probability entries by figuring out the (un) confirmation signals. And for Exits, consider adjusting your tactics to match the rhythm you are given, and go for what the market give you.
Hope this helps.
I mean this in the most constructive way. Looking over your entries and exits, both look pretty random and suspect. Random in that why one would take a position at that point. A lot of them needs some price action confirmation or there is direct dis-confirmation. And suspect on why the exit there, when there was a swing in your favor and then a retest of that swing, but no exit. Additionally, some entries appear to be "contradictory" from day to day, specifically the "bottom of range" breakouts are both shorts and longs that occur after a consolidation period.
Now totally guessing since the bandwidth is so narrow in forums and data provided is small, it appears that you are trying for some pretty big swings and letting profitable trades go to negative. It is as if the trades have a set expectation, market action be dammed. In one of the archives, one person described the targets as getting most of the swings, as it happens, i.e. what the market gives.
So I would consider trying for smaller moves and more of them. ES has a rhythm, although different each day, but it is there, sometimes small, sometimes bigger. For entries, look for more high probability entries by figuring out the (un) confirmation signals. And for Exits, consider adjusting your tactics to match the rhythm you are given, and go for what the market give you.
Hope this helps.
In your quote, you either intentionally or unintentionally neglected this part of his post:
Problem is your human eyes sees what your mind wants and ignores the rest.
Generally, a method which relies on interpretation, feelings, memory, etc., is flawed. Particularly when trading in a live and fast moving market. That's not to say it's not possible. I just think it's very hard and probably most relevant for a scalper's method.
I generally trade off statistics and probabilities and even then I still find that there are times where I project my own views or wishes on the market and override my system.
Keeping and maintaining a neutral and objective mindset when trading is so important, but not always easy to accomplish. Having rules and some objective measure for your entries/exits definitely helps.
You traded yesterday, Friday during US session.
Be careful with this market.
Now, look at the bigger picture.
on 13 Nov,
ES uptrend started during mid-Asian session.
I managed to catch this signal.
In fact, Russell 2000, Thailand SET50, India Nifty were up in tandem.
The uptrend continued during the European session.
Unfortunately, come US session, it was trend exhaustion
( choppy market, messy movement ...).
I traded during this session but with a reduced quantity
since the market was rather chaotic.
I suffered a small loss.
After a loss, I stopped trading immediately because it wouldn't be
easy to profit from such a market.
Avoid choppy messy chaotic untrendy market at all cost.
Because the chances of making money are < 25%
no chart to share today, but lost 50 ticks on the day. 8 trades. 3 winners. Hard to read it for me today. Erratic moves
so far:
day 1: +25 ticks
day 2: +139 ticks
day 3: +97 ticks
day 4: -93 ticks
day 5: -50 ticks
so far:
day 1: +25 ticks
day 2: +139 ticks
day 3: +97 ticks
day 4: -93 ticks
day 5: -50 ticks