ES Trend Following

[Bombardier]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Do you follow and monitor the market 24/7 for entering and exiting positions or are there certain time periods, like RTH, where you manage your system?

I look forward to keep following this journal and it will be interesting to see you scale up to your second contract. I believe the second contract is always the hardest, since you are doubling your risk in dollars. Adding the subsequent contracts is different, since the risk in dollars is proportionally smaller for each contract.

That's right. The first upgrade is always the hardest I load up finviz.com from time to time to check how the market is doing out of curiosity but it's not really a strategy that requires me to be available around the clock (thankfully). The hard stop is set to trigger outside RTH as well by default, so the market will exit for me once breached. The entry setup also takes at least 2 days to really evolve, so once things get interesting, I'm usually hawking to get in.

 

[Bombardier]

My previous short position was stopped out. The market completely recovered in a weird fashion whereby no long opportunity become apparent to me. If had stayed in my long position from last week, I would have been stopped out by yesterday, too, which makes me conclude that either way I would be flat by now. Let's see if a new setup is offered in the coming days.

Total profit since beginning: $16,125

 

[Bombardier]

Quote from OddTrader:

Very impressive results, and a great thread indeed!

Just would like to know your performance stats such as Average annual returns, Sharpe, MaxDD, etc. , in addition to your backtesting and realtime charts.

Thanks for your kind words, OddTrader. I'll look into the formulas and try to include the data in the performance update going forward.

 

[tihfa]

hey bomb,

any thoughts on the breakout below or above the range?

tihfa

 

[Bombardier]

Hi tihfa,

Yes, a break above it is a legitimate buy, and a breakdown could be a short. It just isn't the classic reversal breakout pattern I take but a continuation pattern. Nevertheless, definitely worth a try.

 

[Daal]

How come you weren't long in this uptrend?

 

[Bombardier]

There was no reversal pattern.

 

[OddTrader]

Quote from Bombardier:

I'll look into the formulas and try to include the data in the performance update going forward.

Perhaps initially only these three: Average annual returns, Sharpe, MaxDD would be most important, imo.

 

[Daal]

Quote from Bombardier:

There was no reversal pattern.

The trend reversed didn't it?

 

[Bombardier]

Quote from Daal:

The trend reversed didn't it?

Not yet, there is no noticeable horizontal support base broken to the downside, and the uptrend channel since beginning of August is still intact as of this moment. We merely touched the top from March and sold off a bit (double top), but going short yesterday is speculative at best. This is what I'm seeing: