Quote from Flashboy:
Grob,
Thanks for the post.. I see what you mean referring to the Long Term Trend Line now..
But I'm not sure I follow when you say flat top pennant on the IT trend..
Is it possible for you to post a chart?? What time frame are you looking at when referring to IT??
thanks again
Attached is a chart.
It covers the ES for two cycles of hitting the top of R.
Rather than give you a fish, I will give you, briefly, a total
orientation to making a lot of money.
In making money you use channels to have an orientation to a given market. We saw that by trading on several fractals concurrently, you could really clean up. Segmented accounts are used for this.
To do the optimum for takingmoney out of the market, a person trades, as independant entities, at least three fractals: LT, IT and intraday. All have channels and all have traverses of these channels. Channel traverses can be the basis of frequency of taking profits.
Presently a traverse of the LT channel is 60 to 70 points. IT channels are what traverse the LT channel for the quarter. ES04M is a bear channel. The prior LT channel was a Bull channel.
IT channels last 5 to 8 days. In this quarter (ES04M) we have had 7 completed IT channels. The attachment ID's these and numbers them from the beginning of the channel. IT # 3 long came up to the right trend line of the LT channel (see green Flat top pennant in middle). The left and right FTP's show similar bashings. IT #7 tested it times 4, 5, 6 and failed to BO. The lateral IT # 5 is where tests 1, 2, 3 occurred. This is called the Top of R. and it is holding strong in this Bear quarter.
a person must annotate all charts with the LT and IT trends to have a perspective. To make a lot of money, a person does 4 things:
1. Knows how a day works. (you do not know this yet)
2. Have the context for the upcoming day (you are getting to this now.)
3. Knows how the H/L relates to the potential of the market to delivery profits. (This is no a possibility to consider in ET at this year)
4. sets a daily profit goal based upon the H/L. This is a SNAFU for ET'ers so far.
Details on the above 4.
I posted on all four relative to Tuesday. Here is a synopsis.
1. All days have four trends. M or W in appearance. The 10:00am news trend netted 4,000 for 10 contracts. This was trend 1 and was fast paced. Trends 2 and 4 were short each and netted 3,000 dollars each; they were medium paced trends. Trend 3 was long and a slow paced trend. Slow paced trends make the most money; it made 11 points for 5,500 dollars. Thus knowing you are going to trade 4 trends makes it easy to plan to make money.
2. You must know the LT trend and what IT trend is going on in the LT to have a context. On Tuesday, we started in the context of a long IT trend bashing into the right line of the LT trend. This "M" day had a first channel bash into the Top of R. we knew the value of Top of R; it was the sell price on the first trend.
The back off ends and thrend 3 tried yet another time with 11 traverses (each one moving in a 2 to 3 point channel). For trades on each trverse, you passed through a specific ES value up to 7 consecutive trimes. Trend 4 was a killer situation. It ened about everything in sight: IT trend 7; the FTP formed between the IT and LT; and it balsted five points into the next IT short trend to begin day 1 of that trend.
3. H/L the day was in a FTP so a high H/L range is not easy to come by unlass...... we had a definite "unless" My target for making money is 3xH/L. That is 33 points; for ten contracts that is a gross of 16,500. Call it 15,000. Trend 1= 4,000, trend 2=3000; trend 4=3000; the slow trend with 11 traverses midday was 5,500 or 500 times 11. 1 point per trade per contract.
4. I set a goal of 3x H/L range. See 3 above.
the tasks I do are as follows:
1. monitor by gathering data.
2. do analysis.
3. decide to hold or act.
4. Act by doing nothing or hitting T on IB's TWS.
To do the above I follow these details.
1. I do PRV on 5 min chart 7 times every five minutes to determine it volume is accelerating or decelerating.
If it is decelerating I look for a 2 pair on the DOM and if it reaches a dwell one tick pair back from the end of the translating bar, then I trade "before" a spike appears. Otherwise I sit on my tail.
2. analysis. I do almost no analysis unless required. I only do analysis if I have an impending failure to traverse from right to left in one of four trends a day. if the trend is fast, I use the context (bashing R or S to reverse. If a trend is medium I do not reverse on fist left to right treverse but I do reverse when the travese makes more than three ticks net per traverse. For slow trends I trade all traverses. all trades use the 2 pair and spike process for gathering data to analyze.
3. Decisions. I have a complete set of NLP pictures for using to make all decisions based upon analysis. I am complete for SCT trading 100% of the day when the NYSE is open.
4. Action. I hit T as the only item I have to consider. all possibilities are posted on the TWS all the time. I move the arrow to the color and the proper # of contracts line. I may scale at market.
The above is geared to tuesday to be in synch with the thread.
for the three market paces, volume drives the pace. Fast pace is vol > 10 to 12K. For medium pace vol is between 4,500 and 10K. for slow pace vol is < 4.500.
For meeting targets each day, 1/3 is done on slow pace; most is done on medium (two trends usually) and least is done on fast pace as the day begins (say about 20 to 25%) in 10 to 15 minutes.
At this point you can see drawing all channels and traverses is a requirement of knowing where you are. the single NLP belief that is extremely important is to "trust" the expression "channels work". You find this out by using channels and seeing that the channel boundary on the left is hit for each right to left traverse. Then the channel boundary is hit by the following traverse. Channel boundaires are parallel.
Channels are a geometric depiction of price movement in the face of a given level of "push"; "push" is measured in crude decrete non overlapping ranges of volume. I have these bands showing as rays on my volume display. By assessing whether the volume velocity is accelerating or decelerating 6 times every 5 minutes, I nkow how price is going to move on the DOM bid/ ask pairs. I hit T as required to continue to make money throughout the day.
A person on ET said that ES is very orderly. I have to agree. If it were not, probably as a 71yo, I would have to "get with it" because of my age handicap.
If I have to replace my headlamps on one of my cars, I have to nail 1,500 dollars on each of two contracts on a day.
